It was obvious that today’s news that Juan Soto had turned down a reported 15-year, $440 million deal from the Washington Nationals had been leaked by the Nats’ front office.
Soto all but confirmed that in a chat with reporters before Saturday’s game with the Atlanta Braves.
“It feels really bad to see stuff going out like that, because I’m a guy who, my side, keeps everything quiet and try to keep it to them and me. They just make the decision and do what they need to do,” Soto said.
Soto, 23, already has a World Series ring and a batting title to his credit. In 553 career games, Soto has 117 homers and a slash line of .292/.427/.540, with an OPS of .967.
His WAR per 162 games is 6.2. For comparison,
- Mike Trout: 9.5
- Mookie Betts: 82
- Shohei Otani: 7.7
- Aaron Judge: 7.4
- Jacob DeGrom: 6.8
- Clayton Kershaw: 6.3
- Nolen Arenado: 6.0
- Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado and Ronald Acuna: 5.8
- Trea Turner: 5.7
- Max Scherzer: 5.6
- Justin Verlander: 5.4
- Albert Pujols and Giancarlo Stanton: 5.3
- Bryce Harper: 5.1
So, he’s up there among the best, and he’s 23.
The total value of the deal offered by the Nats would be the biggest in MLB history, for now. The average annual value would rank 20th, though, and while the deal didn’t include any deferred money, it was backloaded toward the latter years of the deal, which would essentially cover the duration of Soto’s career, through his age-38 season.
Why it was obvious that it was the Nats who would have leaked the news is because the terms of the proposal are pretty fair. Soto would be bought out of the final two years of his team control, giving him in the range of $10 million more for those two years than he will likely get in arbitration, and it’s guaranteed money.
Him not taking it is an indication that Soto and his agent, Scott Boras, want to test the free-agent market when his team control runs out after the 2024 season.
The news leak included an indication from the Nationals that they’re going to do their due diligence in terms of seeing what is out there on the trade market.
Two and a half years of team control for one of the game’s top three or four superstars would come with a hefty price tag.
You can bet that the Nats will expect at least four of an organization’s top, top prospects, plus the trade partner taking on the contract of either Patrick Corbin (who is owed $59 million over the next two years) or Stephen Strasburg (who is owed $140 million over the next four years).
The universe of organizations who have the money to take on one of those bad deals and can also offer four can’t-miss prospects is obviously limited.
Today’s news leak, coming more than two weeks before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, is the signal to let the bidding war begin, with the Nats under no pressure to move Soto, because worst-case for Washington, they ride things out to the end of the year, maybe throw another offer at Soto and Boras this winter, or reinitiate a bidding war at the winter meetings.
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Chris Graham
