ACC Bracketology: I think we’re getting seven, with SMU left on the outside looking in

Locks (6)

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Duke (32-2, 20-1 ACC)

Quad 1: 17-2
Quad 2: 6-0
Quad 3-4: 8-0

Average computer ranking: 1.4
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 1 seed

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Virginia (29-5, 17-4)

Quad 1: 8-4
Quad 2: 9-1
Quad 3-4: 12-0

Average computer ranking: 11.0
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 3 seed

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Louisville (23-10, 12-8 ACC)

Quad 1: 8-10
Quad 2: 4-0
Quad 3-4: 11-0

Average computer ranking: 21.6
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 6 seed

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North Carolina (24-8, 12-7 ACC)

Quad 1: 6-8
Quad 2: 5-0
Quad 3-4: 13-0

Average computer ranking: 22.4
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 6 seed

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Clemson (24-10, 140-7ACC)

Quad 1: 6-6
Quad 2: 7-4
Quad 3-4: 11-0

Average computer ranking: 32.2
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 8 seed

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Miami (25-8, 14-6 ACC)

Quad 1: 6-6
Quad 2: 6-2
Quad 3-4: 13-0

Average computer ranking: 32.8
NCAA Tournament seed projection: 8 seed

Awaiting their fate (2)

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NC State (20-13, 11-9 ACC)

Quad 1: 5-8
Quad 2: 6-4
Quad 3-4: 9-1

Average computer ranking: 40.9
NCAA Tournament seed projection: Last Four Byes

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SMU (20-13, 9-11 ACC)

Quad 1: 4-9
Quad 2: 5-4
Quad 3-4: 11-0

Average computer ranking: 47.3
NCAA Tournament seed projection: Second Four Out

What to watch for today

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• The A-10 championship game with VCU and Dayton has everybody’s attention, after Dayton upset Saint Louis on Saturday.

Saint Louis is 27-5, has an average computer ranking at 35.8, and projects as a 9 seed.

VCU is 26-7, has an average computer ranking at 38.1, and projects as a 10 seed.

Dayton, at 23-10 and an average computer ranking at 59.6, is a bid-stealer.

• Also worth watching: the American championship game, pitting South Florida and Wichita State.

South Florida is 24-10, with an average computer ranking at 45.6; that’s a better ACR than SMU, with a 3-3 record in Quad 1 (SMU is 4-9) and a 4-3 record in Quad 2 (SMU is 5-4).

Wichita State (22-10, ACR: 74.0) would be a bid-stealer.

• Auburn is the other thing to watch, even though the Tigers don’t have a game.

The SEC has its hype machine on overdrive for their 17-16 darlings, who lost nine of their last 12, but I mean, come on, they supposedly played the nation’s toughest schedule (actually, it ranks third in KenPom, fifth in the NET, sixth in the ESPN BPI).

Auburn’s ACR is 45.1; they’re in South Florida territory.

But you will hear a lot about them today.