The UVA offense, from QB Brennan Armstrong to his all-star wideouts, has regressed noticeably from where things were last year, and it’s beginning to seem that it’s something that can’t or won’t be fixed this season.
Armstrong, in a clean pocket, was 17-of-36 for 126 yards and an INT, and an NFL passer rating of 44.4, in Friday’s 22-20 loss at Syracuse, according to data from Pro Football Focus.
Last year, Armstrong, in a clean pocket, had a 69.1 percent completion rate, and had 28 TDs, 10 INTs and an NFL passer rating on those throws of 111.0.
BA had a 62.0 percent completion rate, 15 TDs, eight INTs and a 92.3 NFL rating on his clean-pocket throws in 2020.
For all the talk from coach Tony Elliott about Armstrong’s mechanics, the only thing different between this year and the last two is new offensive coordinator Des Kitchings and new QB coach Taylor Lamb.
“It’s football, it’s all 11 being on the same page, especially offensive football,” Elliott said after Friday’s loss. “That’s what I’ve been trying to tell these guys. It’s all about chemistry, it’s all about cohesion, it’s all about timing. It’s spacing, it’s angles, it’s numbers, and all that stuff works together, and if you got one guy that’s out of sync, more than likely you’re not going to have a successful play.”
The problem, to anybody who has ever read the seminal book The Inner Game of Tennis, is obvious: Armstrong is thinking, not playing naturally, which you should probably expect from a guy who had studied and practiced and played in the system of former offensive coordinator Robert Anae and QB coach Jason Beck for four years.
The troubles you’re seeing from Armstrong, and his receivers, who are also still obviously thinking, not playing, are why it takes a while for guys when they transfer or make the move up to the NFL.
Kitchings and Lamb do things differently than Anae and Beck – not just the scheme and play-calling, but the little things, like footwork for QBs, how receivers need to cut and break.
In retrospect, it may have been better if Armstrong had transferred out, maybe even tried to follow Anae and Beck to Syracuse, and for Elliott to have written off this year as the first year of him and his staff laying down what they expect out of their offense so that they could then go out and recruit guys who would be good fits in it.
All Armstrong has done, and this is the case with wideout Dontayvion Wicks as well, those guys had what looked to be huge NFL upsides after they put up big numbers last year, and at this point, barring what you’d have to say is unexpected growth out of them at this point, neither look like NFL material.
Wicks, who had another dropped pass in the loss Friday night, and now has six for the season – one more than he had all of last year – at least has some time, as a junior, to get back on track.
Wicks has a 52.5 season grade in 2022 from PFF; last year, his PFF grade was 78.8, after he recorded 57 catches on 92 targets for 1,203 yards.
He has 17 catches on 47 targets for 197 yards through four games in 2022.
Armstrong, somehow, some way, has a 47.4 PFF grade in 2022, after putting up grades of 91.8 in 2021 and 90.3 in 2020.
BA is a fifth-year senior, so this is it for him, and it’s frustrating to see him struggling like he is, after showing utter mastery of the Anae scheme last year, when he passed for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns, and looked to come into this season as a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate.
The way things are looking right now, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Elliott and Kitchings go with backup Jay Woolfolk at some point this season, if only to get a look at Woolfolk as a possible starter for 2023 to decide if he can hack it, or if the staff might need to look at the transfer portal to find a fit at QB.
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Chris Graham
