What UVA Basketball fans need to know about Miami

What can go wrong, has, for Miami coach Jim Larranaga, whose team started 3-0, with a win over Purdue, before the bottom fell out.

Larranaga had first-team preseason All-ACC point guard Chris Lykes for two games, and he’s had to make a go of it without four of his projected eight rotation guys most of the 2020-2021 season.

That the ‘Canes have been able to be, for the most part, competitive, which, yes, they’re 3-14 in the ACC, but they beat Duke, beat N.C. State, lost two tight games to Virginia Tech, two tight ones to Clemson, give ‘em credit.

‘Canes to watch

• 6’3 sophomore Isaiah Wong: 17.8 ppg, 5.1 rebs/g, 44.6% FG, 34.4% 3FG
• 6’5” senior Kameron McGusty: 11.5 ppg, 40.3% FG, 32.7% 3FG
• 6’5” senior Elijah Olaniyi: 11.3 ppg, 4.9 rebs/g, 44.3% FG, 27.1% 3FG
• 6’9” senior Anthony Walker: 9.2 ppg, 4.1 rebs/g, 43.8% FG, 23.1% 3FG
• 7’0” senior Nysier Brooks: 6.2 ppg, 6.0 rebs/g, 47.7% FG
• 6’11” junior Deng Gak: 2.2 ppg, 3.0 rebs/g, 43.5% FG, 33.3% 3FG

Breakdown: Offense

Efficiency numbers from Synergy Sports

Spot-ups: 28.3 percent of offensive possessions

Way too much offense from spot-ups for a group that isn’t a good shooting team – 29.5 percent from three, 327th nationally.

• Who to watch for: Olaniyi rates “good,” per Synergy (26-of-66, 39.4%, 0.963 PPP). Wong is the volume guy (30-of-90, 33.3%, 0.863 PPP).

Inside game (post-ups, lane cuts, offensive rebounds): 21.9 percent of offensive possessions

Synergy rates Miami “poor” on cuts and offensive rebounds, “average” on post-ups.

• Who to watch for: Olaniyi (12-of-21, 57.1%, 1.179 PPP on cuts, Walker (21-of-34, 61.8%, 1.133 on cuts), Brooks (12-of-22, 54.5%, 0.889 PPP on cuts, 10-of-20, 50.0%, 0.828 PPP on offensive rebounds, 12-of-31, 38.7%, 0.815 PPP on post-ups).

Pick-and-rolls: 17.7 percent of offensive possessions

Synergy rates the ‘Canes “very good” on both ends of the pick-and-roll.

• Who to watch for: Wong (36-of-79, 45.6%, 1.047 PPP on P&R ball-handler), McGusty (13-of-31, 41.9%, 0.822 PPP on P&R ball-handler), Brooks (12-of-16, 75.0%, 1.5 PPP on P&R man).

Transition: 14.9% of offensive possessions

Synergy rates Miami “very good” here, but Larranaga doesn’t run much, maybe a function of his limited rotation availability.

• Who to watch for: Walker (14-of-20, 70.0%, 1.423 PPP), Wong (25-of-41, 61.0%, 1.382 PPP), McGusty (15-of-29, 51.7%, 1.179 PPP), Olaniyi (15-of-22, 68.2%, 1.161 PPP).

Breakdown: Defense

Efficiency numbers from Synergy Sports

Synergy rates Walker “excellent” (0.691 PPP) and McGusty “very good” (0.755 PPP).

At a glance

Efficiency data from KenPom.com

• Offense: Miami 101.2 (206), Virginia 115.7 (15)
• Defense: Miami 99.1 (116), Virginia 92.6 (30)
• Tempo: Miami 68.0 (203), Virginia 60.1 (357)

Details

Miami (7-15, 3-14 ACC) at #15 Virginia (15-6, 11-4 ACC)
Monday, 6 p.m., ACC Network

• ESPN BPI: Virginia +16.7, 95.2% win probability
• BartTorvik: Virginia 68-54, 93% win probability
• KenPom: Virginia 70-55, 91% win probability

Story by Chris Graham