Gotta say, if bulletin-board material is actually a factor, the Virginia kids have what they need, with the oddsmakers installing #1 Duke as a double-digit favorite ahead of the Saturday noon clash between the top two teams in the ACC.
Both teams have big wins over Texas and Louisville, narrow wins at FSU, and losses to North Carolina.
Maybe what the outsiders are missing here: there’s a lot of talent on both sides, but it’s different types of talent.
Duke is young: in the Dookies’ 68-63 win over Michigan last weekend, they played four freshmen, two sophomores, a junior and a senior.
Virginia, on its side, is a team of grown-ass men: in its 86-83 win over Miami last weekend, played one run-of-the-mill freshman, one 20-year-old freshman, one 23-year-old freshman, one junior, and four seniors.
The Duke side is guys aiming for the first round of the NBA Draft; the Virginia side is Euro imports and mid-major kids playing up.
Which is to say, the one group is guys everybody expected to be in this position; the other, nobody but themselves did.
Me personally, I’d wear the disrespect as a badge of honor.
Game Details
Virginia (25-3, 13-2 ACC, NET: 15) at Duke (26-2, 14-1 ACC, NET: 2)
Day/Time: Saturday, noon ET
TV: ESPN
Forecast
KenPom: Duke 75-65
BartTorvik: Duke 74-65
ESPN BPI: Duke +12.5
ICYMI: UVA Basketball recent archives
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos humble Will Wade, NC State, back to the Stone Age
- UVA Basketball: Cavaliers outlast Miami, 86-83, in instant classic on Tony Bennett Day
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos dominant in 94-68 blowout win at Georgia Tech
- UVA Basketball: Nothing comes easy for this group; might as well embrace it
- UVA Basketball: Florida State dictated, but couldn’t finish off the upset
Featured matchup
The marquee matchup, from our perspective, will be Thijs de Ridder (16.0 ppg, 6.3 rebounds/g, 4.0 assists/g, 52.4% FG, 32.5% 3FG, 5.0 FTAs/g) against Duke’s Cameron Boozer (22.7 ppg, 10.1 rebounds/g, 58.3% FG, 40.8% 3FG, 6.6 FTAs/g).
Boozer, at 6’9”, 250, is a projected top four pick; de Ridder, at 6’9”, 238, is, right now, still on the outside looking in, in terms of the 2026 draft.
The scouts in attendance on Saturday will probably be more focused on how Boozer fares against a big, physical Euro than the other way around, but this is nonetheless a chance for our guy to make some money.
Duke contributors:
- 6’6” sophomore Isaiah Evans: 14.5 ppg, 42.3% FG, 35.4% 3FG
- 6’11” sophomore Patrick Ngongba: 10.7 ppg, 6.1 rebounds/g, 60.2% FG, 25.9% 3FG
- 6’5” junior Caleb Foster: 8.8 ppg, 45.7% FG, 40.9% 3FG
- 6’4” freshman Cayden Boozer: 6.5 ppg, 49.2% FG, 29.8% 3FG
- 6’8” freshman Dame Sarr: 5.8 ppg, 39.9% FG, 31.5% 3FG
- 6’8” freshman Nikolas Khamenia: 5.7 ppg, 46.6% FG, 34.2% 3FG
- 6’9” senior Maliq Brown: 4.6 ppg, 4.6 rebounds/g, 59.2% FG, 13.0% 3FG
Analytics: Duke vs. UVA
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Duke offense: 1.276 PPP (7)
Virginia defense: 0.961 PPP (17)
Virginia offense: 1.232 PPP (24)
Duke defense: 0.892 PPP (1)
Threes
Duke offense: 249/714, 34.9% (3FGA/g: 95; 3FG%: 129)
Virginia defense: 182/607, 30.0% (3FGA/g: 100; 3FG%: 18)
Virginia offense: 287/790, 36.3% (3FGA/g: 32; 3FG%: 50)
Duke defense: 224/732, 30.6% (3FGA/g: 95; 3FG%: 29)
At the Rim
Duke offense: 421/606, 69.5% (FGA/g: 42; FG%: 28)
Virginia defense: 255/456, 55.9% (FGA/g: 80; FG%: 17)
Virginia offense: 359/570, 63.0% (FGA/g: 86; FG%: 154)
Duke defense: 229/411, 55.7% (FGA/g: 30; FG%: 16)
Paint 2s
Duke offense: 114/234, 48.7% (FGA/g: 314; FG%: 25)
Virginia defense: 132/357, 37.0% (FGA/g: 310; FG%: 38)
Virginia offense: 116/262, 44.3% (FGA/g: 253; FG%: 111)
Duke defense: 108/272, 39.7% (FGA/g: 123: FG%: 108)
Midrange 2s
Duke offense: 26/72, 36.1% (FGA/g: 346; FG%: 188)
Virginia defense: 82/235, 34.9% (FGA/g: 346; FG%: 127)
Virginia offense: 39/91, 42.9% (FGA/g: 328; FG%: 31)
Duke defense: 76/212, 35.8% (FGA/g: 304; FG%: 168)
Free throws
Duke defense: 22.5 FTAs/g (90); 72.5% (182)
Virginia defense: 20.0 FTAs/g (162)
Virginia offense: 20.9 FTAs/g (170); 70.5% (229)
Duke defense: 13.4 FTAs/g (2)
Rebounds
Offensive-Duke: 37.0% (17)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.2% (96)
Offensive-Virginia: 39.1% (4)
Defensive-Duke: 75.2% (9)
Turnover rate
Duke offense: 15.8% (117)
Virginia defense: 16.0% (233)
Virginia offense: 15.9% (124)
Duke defense: 18.8% (70)
Analysis
Duke attacks the hell out of the rim, and somehow defends the rim as well as Virginia does, without getting called for fouls.
Yes, “somehow.”
The defense has a weakness – the Dookies are susceptible to giving up threes.
Virginia needs to attack the paint, try to get Duke’s bigs into foul trouble, but also be focused on using dribble penetration to get threes for the wings.
Virginia has had trouble with rebounding of late – its offensive rebounding percentage in the last five (33.7%) is just 77th nationally; the ‘Hoos will have to get closer to its 39% season rate to have a chance in this one.
So, offensive boards, avoid cheap ACC HQ-directive fouls that put Duke on the line and get our guys in foul trouble, hit threes.
That’s how this one is winnable.
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Chris Graham
