UVA Football coach Tony Elliott has a quarterback problem, and if he doesn’t get it fixed, to use his favorite word these days, his boss, the athletics director, Carla Williams, might soon have a money problem.
For the second time in three weeks, Elliott’s QB1, Beau Pribula, couldn’t figure out what the other guys on the line of scrimmage were doing from play to play, and his offensive coordinator, Des Kitchings, looked from the TV shots of the coaches box upstairs like he was fighting the fight of his life with a host of internal demons, and losing the battle.
ICYMI
- UVA Football: Overpaid, poorly coached ‘Hoos steamrolled at FSU, losing 38-7
- UVA Football: This Virginia team has a whole ‘nuther dimension of quit to it
- UVA Football: Every time Tony Elliott pledges to ‘fix’ things, you take a shot
In both games – the loss to West Virginia, and yesterday’s drubbing at Florida State – an argument could have been made to have the backup, Eli Holstein, a two-year starter at Pitt, warming up in the bullpen, at the very least.
Instead, Elliott left Pribula in – to lead a meaningless garbage-time TD drive at the end of the 38-27 loss to WVU, and then to expose his guy to even more of a beating on top of the 10 sacks that Pribula had already endured in the 38-7 loss to FSU.
Elliott acknowledged postgame last night that he did give going to Holstein for mop-up duty some thought.
The reason he then gave for sending his starter back out there didn’t make a lot of sense.
“We were battling, and, you know, things were kind of going haywire left and right, and, you know, there was conversation about it,” Elliott began the word salad, “but with the challenges that they were posing and the things that were happening, you know, we were just, you know, kind of trying to figure out how to fix it, right? And I don’t know if at that time it was the best situation, and it might have been, but I don’t know if that would have been fair to him, either, if we’re struggling to protect, you know, putting a another quarterback in the game.”
Elliott seems to not want to acknowledge the reason his offensive line was “struggling to protect” – that it’s the QB, Pribula, who hasn’t shown himself to be able to consistently read what the defense is doing, before the snap or after.
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Even when his O line kept the pocket clean yesterday against FSU, Pribula was only 12-of-25 for 135 yards through the air, per the granular data from Pro Football Focus.
Most of what he was able to accomplish came on short stuff – on passes of distances from behind the line of scrimmage to less than 10 yards downfield, Pribula was 8-of-14 for 70 yards, so, 8.8 yards per completion, and 5.0 yards per attempt, with an average depth of throw on those 14 attempts at a mere 1.9 yards per.
On throws that went 10 or more yards downfield, Pribula was just 6-of-17 for 98 yards, which is feast-or-famine: 16.3 yards per completion, but 5.8 yards per attempt.
To try to build a frame of reference, I looked at the numbers that the other former Penn State backup now starting in the ACC, Ethan Grunkemeyer, did this week in Virginia Tech’s 35-33 loss to Pitt on Friday night.
Grunkemeyer had a feast-or-famine kind of night of his own in the setback: 31-of-40 for 434 yards and three TDs being the feast, the two INTs and three fumbles being the famine.
On short throws – behind the line to less than 10 yards downfield – Grunk was 19-of-23 for 171 yards, so, 9.0 yards per completion, 7.4 yards per attempt.
On passes of 10+ yards: 11-of-17, 263 yards, so, 23.9 yards per completion, 15.5 yards per attempt.
Of note: Grunkemeyer was pressured on 17 of his 45 dropbacks (37.8 percent), with an average time to throw of 3.09 seconds on the pressured dropbacks.
Grunkemeyer was 10-of-13 for 182 yards on those pressured dropbacks.
Pribula, against FSU, was pressured on 18 of his 43 dropbacks (41.9 percent), with an average time to throw of 3.34 seconds on the pressured dropbacks.
Pribula was 2-of-8 for 33 yards on those pressured dropbacks.
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I picked Grunkemeyer as the comparison not just for the obvious reason, that he’s the QB1 down at Virginia Tech, but moreso because, James Franklin, who coached both Grunkemeyer and Pribula at Penn State, had his choice between the two, and went with Grunkemeyer.
Maybe now we can see why.
The reason we were told back in the spring that Elliott wanted Pribula as his starter was Pribula’s ability in the run game, which was evident in the season-opening win over NC State when Pribula went for 120 sack-adjusted yards on the ground on 14 attempts.
In the four games since: Pribula has just 63 sack-adjusted yards on the ground on 19 attempts.
Opposing D coordinators have figured him out, and taken away Pribula’s ability to contribute in the run game – and in the process, the Power 4 opponents, anyway, have been able to expose the flaws in his ability to read and process what he’s seeing in pass coverage.
Defenses can thus negate the advantage that Virginia should have with its deep and talented offensive line by packing defenders into the box to take away the running game, and limiting the options in the passing game to quick stuff at or behind the line of scrimmage, or 50/50 balls downfield.
There’s no guarantee that going to Eli Holstein opens things up, but it does seem pretty clear that defensive coordinators have their game plan for how to defense the Virginia offense with Beau Pribula behind center laid out for them.
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The issue here for Elliott: the people who write the checks to fund UVA Football didn’t give Elliott and Williams the $40 million I’m told went into this year’s roster to be 3-2 with two ugly losses to middle-of-the-pack teams here in the first week of October.
Elliott got himself a raise and extension after winning 11 games last season, but now the money people have to be wondering if last year was an aberration – Mike London had one of those, going 8-5 in his Year 2, his lone winning season in his six years at the helm.
I doubt seriously that anything other than an all-out collapse gets Elliott’s seat warmer in the offseason, but I think it’s fair to assume that, let’s say, a 7-5 finish or worse this year could make next year more interesting in terms of his long-term job security.
The money people have made it clear that they’re willing to spend to win; they’re going to expect results for all those tens of millions they’re committing.
I think TE is wanting to show loyalty to his QB1 by not making any moves with Pribula, but he’s going to need to start showing loyalty to the other 104 guys on the roster, and his own future, if this thing doesn’t get, you know, fixed, pretty soon.
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Chris Graham
