Pitt didn’t enter the 2024 football season with what you’d call expectations, after slipping to a 3-9 finish in 2023.
If anything, the thought about Pitt Football going into the season was, Pat Narduzzi may be on the hot seat.
Turns out, 2023 was an aberration.
Narduzzi led the Panthers to a 7-0 start, with the season coming to a temporary thud with last week’s 48-25 loss to SMU.
Pitt is technically still in the race for a spot in the 2024 ACC Championship Game, but there are a lot of teams in that race.
The focus in the here and now, with Virginia (4-4, 2-3 ACC) on its way to the Steel City this weekend, is avoiding an improbable upset – Vegas somehow has the Panthers just a 7.5-point home favorite, though ESPN Analytics gives Pitt a 76.1 percent win probability.
The Pitt offense
Redshirt freshman QB Eli Holstein is having a solid first season at the college level – passing for 257 yards per game, completing 63.5 percent of his passes, with 17 TDs and six INTs.
Holstein is best on intermediate throws – per Pro Football Focus, he is 38-of-62 (61.3 percent) for 637 yards, nine TDs, one INT and a 128.8 NFL passer rating on throws that travel between 10 and 19 yards in the air.
His top targets:
- Wideout Konata Mumpfield: 33 catches/51 targets, 541 yards, three TDs
- Slot receiver Raphael Williams Jr.: 22 catches/43 targets, 267 yards, five TDs
- Wideout Kenny Johnson: 32 catches/41 targets, 358 yards, three TDs
- Tight end Gavin Bartholomew: 24 catches/30 targets, 188 yards
Tailback Desmond Reid is also a factor in the passing game – 30 catches/45 targets, 386 yards, four TDs through the air.
You need to account for Reid on passes in the flat – he has 17 catches on 26 targets for 252 yards on passes that travel 0-9 yards in the air.
On the ground, Reid has gained 590 yards and averages 5.8 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns.
Holstein is the second-leading rusher, with 305 net yards – with 269 scramble yards, averaging 9.6 yards per scramble, not bad for a big guy (6’4”, 225).
Defense
Safety Javon McIntyre is the highest-graded defender, per PFF – with 16 tackles on running plays, 14 receptions allowed on 25 targets in pass coverage, going for just 87 yards, and a 76.6 NFL passer rating against.
Linebacker Kyle Louis has 21 QB pressures and four sacks, a team-best 68 tackles, 46 on running plays, and three INTs and a 46.2 NFL passer rating against in pass coverage.
Two other names you’ll hear a lot on the TV broadcast are those of edge rushers Nate Matlack (26 QB pressures, three sacks) and Jimmy Scott (22 QB pressures, four sacks).
Details
Virginia at #23 Pitt
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, ACC Network
Series: Pitt leads series, 10-4
Last meeting: Pitt, 37-7 (2022)
ACCN: Wes Durham (play-by-play), Tom Luginbill (analyst), Dana Boyle (sideline)
SiriusXM Radio: SiriusXM 106 / SiriusXM 193 / SiriusXM 371
SiriusXM App: SiriusXM 371 / SiriusXM 955
Line: Pitt -7.5
Over/under: 57.5
Projected final score: Pitt 31, UVA 24
Video: UVA-Pitt preview
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Chris Graham
