Virginia heads to Raleigh this weekend as a 2.5-point road ‘dog at NC State, which suggests to me that Vegas hasn’t yet caught up with the reality of where things are with the UVA Football program.
We’re only one game in, but what I saw last week was what I’d expected from the $30 million roster that Tony Elliott was able to assemble from the largesse of the money folks.
The defense is big, fast, athletic, deep – and that will be the deciding factor on Saturday.
The five things to watch for
#1: State won’t be able to run the ball
The Pack had 109 sack-adjusted rushing yards in its 24-17 win over East Carolina in Week 1, averaging 3.1 yards per attempt.
The bulk of the success for tailback Hollywood Smothers came outside the tackles.
Between the tackles, he had 15 yards on nine attempts.
The UVA interior is better than ECU’s, and UVA’s ends and outside ‘backers are faster than ECU’s.
Keep the Pack from running, and make them one-dimensional.
#2: Gotta keep the wideouts in check
The receiver duo of Wesley Grimes (four catches/five targets, 121 yards) and Teddy Hoffman (five catches/six targets, 93 yards) had big days in the win over ECU.
The slot guy, 6’3” redshirt sophomore Keenan Jackson, got 32 pass snaps in the slot, and had a single 11-yard catch on his two targets.
QB CJ Bailey passed for 318 yards, completing 24 of his 34 pass attempts, the bulk of the completions coming on underneath stuff – he was 17-of-17 within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, for 110 yards.
Virginia’s deep secondary unit – nine guys got at least 19 snaps in the 48-7 Week 1 win over Coastal Carolina – just needs to limit the damage downfield.
Bailey was 4-of-7 for 171 yards on passes that traveled 20-plus yards through the air.
Pressure from the front four will help there.
Gotta make Bailey get rid of the ball sooner than he would like.
#3: Establish a ground game
I don’t like that the starting QB, Chandler Morris, was the leading rusher last week, and that most of his productivity came on scrambles.
Morris got hurt on the last scramble, a 28-yard scamper that got him knocked out of the game with a dinged shoulder.
Des Kitchings needs to leave read-options out of the game plan, and the emphasis in coaching this week needs to be to encourage Morris to be less inclined to take off and run, and if he does, to get to the ground.
The running between the tackles in Week 1 was productive – 104 yards on 26 attempts, 4.0 yards per.
Gonna need more of that.
#4: More Cam Ross
Ross, the grad transfer from JMU, had seven catches on nine targets for 124 yards out of the slot, and he did his best work in space – with 81 of his yards coming after the catch.
Ross, operating in the middle of the field, can open things up for the wideouts, Trell Harris and Jahmal Edrine, on the edges and downfield.
The trio, in turn, should demand enough attention to keep running lanes open for the backs.
#5: Controlling the line of scrimmage
This is where the game is won, and where depth is key.
The Virginia O line kept the pressure off Morris and opened up enough for the run game in the opener.
The D line only had one late-game sack, but forced MJ Morris into bad throws, and kept the Coastal run game in check.
State had trouble running on the interior last week; need to keep that advantage here in Week 2.
Analysis
I like this Virginia team, because of its defense, first and foremost.
Taking a page from Tony Bennett’s basketball philosophy, offense can come and go, but defense travels.
It’s early in the season for the offense to be in the rhythm that it will be.
I think defense carries the day.
Projection: Virginia 24, NC State 13
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Chris Graham
