Most analyses of SMU Football will start, for good reason, with the QB, Kevin Jennings, but I’m going to start with the SMU defense, given the trouble that Virginia has had generating yards and points of late.
The Mustangs (4-1, 2-1 ACC) are averaging 4.4 sacks and 20.2 QB pressures per game, with three D linemen in double-digits in pressures – edge rushers Marques White (15 pressures, five sacks) and Aakil Washington (14 pressures, two sacks) and defensive tackle Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder (13 pressures, two sacks).
SMU operates out of a 4-2-5 alignment, with two ‘backers who are adept at getting pressure on the QB – Brandon Booker (four pressures, three sacks) and Alexander Kilgore (five pressures).
It’s fair to assume that defensive coordinator Maurice Crum Jr. will borrow heavily from the game tape from Virginia’s struggles against five-man fronts in losses to West Virginia and Florida State, and the near-miss with Syracuse.
Each stacked the line and the box with extra personnel, and the effect was twofold – getting pressure on QB Beau Pribula on dropbacks, and also limiting his options in the run game.
Pribula, famously, had 120 sack-adjusted rushing yards on 14 attempts in the 34-8 win over NC State in Week 0, and was pressured on just three of his 14 dropbacks.
It was Zac Alley, the defensive coordinator at WVU, who figured out that the way to keep Pribula in check was to stack the line and the box, blitzing on 22 of his 37 dropbacks, and limiting Pribula to 25 yards on five rushing attempts.
FSU blitzed on 23 of Pribula’s 43 dropbacks, and sacked him 10 times – while limiting him to five sack-adjusted yards rushing on six attempts.
Syracuse only got one sack, but blitzed on 10 of Pribula’s 23 dropbacks, and Pribula was just 1-of-5 passing under pressure, though he did rush for 44 yards on nine attempts.
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Now, to the SMU offense, which is averaging 479.2 yards per game, with Jennings averaging 317.6 yards per game through the air, completing 75.0 percent of his pass attempts – with the drawback being: five INTs and two lost fumbles.
The top targets:
- SLOT Yamir Knight: 29 catches/35 targets, 12.7 yards/catch
- WIDE Jalen Cooper: 19 catches/26 targets, 15.3 yards/catch
- WIDE Yannick Smith: 14 catches/20 targets, 16.5 yards/catch
- TE Randy Pittman Jr.: 16 catches/20 targets, 9.6 yards/catch
- TE Theo Melin Ohrstrom: 11 catches/13 targets, 10.6 yards/catch
The featured back is Kendrick Raphael, who is averaging 83.6 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry.
Jennings has 126 sack-adjusted rushing yards, but only 38 yards came on designed runs.
Meaning: watch out for his scrambles – Jennings is averaging 6.8 yards per scramble.
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On special teams, the placekicking game is a mess – Nick Reed and Brendan Baird are a combined 3-of-7 on field-goal tries.
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SMU opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it’s up to 8.5 – with the over/under at 51.5.
Suggesting an expected final score in the 30-23 SMU range.
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Chris Graham
