Let’s pretend that the weekly CFP Rankings that come out every Tuesday really are worth losing friends over. They’re not, as you know.
The only CFP Rankings that matter are the ones that come out after the conference championship games.
These November rankings are … TV show filler.
OK, that having been established.
LSU, obvs, is #1, after beating Alabama.
Ohio State and Clemson are two and three.
Neither has beaten anybody, but Clemson almost lost at North Carolina, so, they’re three.
Four is where things get interesting.
Georgia v. Alabama
This, from Rob Mullens, the AD at Oregon, and the chair of the CFP Selection Committee: “Georgia, with wins against both Florida and Notre Dame, put them at No. 4 in the rankings this week. The committee spent a lot of time comparing Georgia and Alabama. In the end, Georgia’s two wins over ranked teams made the difference in the No. 4 spot. Alabama clearly is a strong team, but the committee gave the edge to Georgia.”
But, but, but … Georgia lost to South Carolina. South Carolina, 4-6 on the year, lost to North Carolina, blown out by Tennessee.
And ‘Bama lost to LSU. #1 LSU.
“It’s certainly a part of the discussion, no doubt. We’re aware of the South Carolina loss for Georgia and that Alabama’s loss was against a team that was ranked No. 1, so that’s clearly on the board when we’re comparing them,” Mullens said. “But we’re also looking at Georgia’s wins against top-20 teams Florida and Notre Dame.”
That’s fair. Alabama’s biggest win is, like Clemson’s, actually, Texas A&M – 6-3, unranked Texas A&M.
And this doesn’t seem like something that can be rectified in Alabama’s favor in the next few weeks.
Assuming LSU wins out and represents the West in the SEC Championship Game, ‘Bama closes out with 4-5 Mississippi State, Western Carolina of the FCS and Auburn.
Georgia, meanwhile, gets Auburn, Texas A&M and ACC doormat Georgia Tech, and then, ostensibly, LSU in the SEC Championship Game.
Does ‘Bama automatically bump a Georgia-LSU loser, especially if it’s LSU, which won in Tuscaloosa?
The Pac-12 lives!
I think it was Paul Finebaum who I heard say this earlier today, so I shall not take credit for it, but it describes things perfectly for the teams at six and seven, Oregon and Utah.
As you see in NASCAR, when drivers from the same race team use each other as drafting partners, thus are Oregon and Utah.
Both have one loss. Both need the other to keep winning until they’d each reach the Pac-12 Championship Game so that the winner can be best-positioned for a spot in the CFP.
Looking ahead, Oregon finishes out with Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon State, while Utah has UCLA, Arizona and Colorado.
I think I’m there with the idea that if either loses between now and the Pac-12 title game, the winner of that game isn’t in.
Minnesota
What happens if Minnesota keeps winning? The Golden Gophers are a tough case. At 9-0, and with a win over Penn State, it’s odd, at first glance, to see them at #8, but then, aside from that win over Penn State, at home, there’s not much else there.
“The conversation is when you’re looking at Minnesota, their schedule was a concern, particularly their non-conference schedule, and just as it laid out up through Week 10, they had only played one team in their league that had a winning record, but the added win against Penn State obviously impressed the committee,” Mullens said.
Minnesota has been getting better as the season has played out, but early on, despite racking up wins, it tended toward the ugly.
A one-score win over FCS South Dakota State. A two-OT win over 4-5 Fresno State. A 35-32 win over Georgia Southern.
The Gophers have a couple of chances at resume-building wins, finishing out at Iowa and Northwestern, and then at home against Wisconsin.
It’s hard to imagine Minnesota winning all three, but if that happens, and the Gophers upset Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, they’re in.
Column by Chris Graham
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