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Game preview: What UVA Basketball fans should know about Syracuse

Chris Graham

SyracuseSyracuse has lost five of its last six, after a 12-5 start, 3-1 in ACC play, putting the future of third-year head coach Adrian Autry at question.

It’s so bad that Autry had to hear on his radio show last week from a Tyler from Binghamton, who tried to ask Autry, “Who do you think are going to be the best candidates for your job,” before the engineer cut Tyler off.

Autry, a Syracuse alum, and long-time assistant under Jim Boeheim, is 47-41 in his three seasons as the head coach, and hasn’t sniffed the NCAA Tournament.

One thing about his approach to the job that confounds me is, he scrapped the 2-3 zone that Boeheim used to win a ton of games, particularly in March, as recently as 2021, when Boeheim snuck another team into a Sweet 16.

That 2-3 zone was what made games against Syracuse uncomfortable – because you had to do everything different on the offensive end for that one game, against a team that always played that way.

Boeheim had decades of success recruiting to the style of play – a seven-footer in the middle, to block shots and get rebounds; big forwards, to close out in the corners on threes, and themselves stretch defenses on the perimeter; and fast, disruptive guards, who could force turnovers up top, and get out on the break after a miss.

Seems that Autry might have outsmarted himself out of a job.

The rotation


The offense is built around 6’9” sophomore Donnie Freeman (18.6 ppg, 7.4 rebounds/g, 50.9% FG, 34.0% 3FG, 6.4 FTAs/g, 30.4 minutes/g).

JJ Starling, a 6’4” senior, was a five-star recruit out of high school, and early on, was looked at as a possible one- or two-and-done.

Starling (12.0 ppg, 44.5% FG, 32.3% 3FG, 29.9 minutes/g) has been a double-digit scorer in all four of his college seasons – one at Notre Dame, the last three at Syracuse – but he’s not a next-level guy.

Key contributors

  • 6’5” senior Nate Kingz: 10.9 ppg, 47.6% FG, 37.6% 3FG, 30.2 minutes/g
  • 6’3” junior Naithan George: 9.7 ppg, 5.5 assists/g, 39.4% FG, 31.4% 3FG, 30.2 minutes/g
  • 6’9” senior William Kyle: 9.2 ppg, 7.4 rebounds/g, 66.1% FG, 27.7 minutes/g
  • 6’5” freshman Kiyan Anthony: 8.9 ppg, 41.6% FG, 23.3% 3FG, 19.9 minutes/g
  • 6’8” sophomore Tyler Betsey: 7.2 ppg, 40.8% FG, 40.4% 3FG, 18.2 minutes/g
  • 6’9” freshman Sadiq White: 6.0 ppg, 51.3% FG, 28.6% 3FG, 16.3 minutes/g

Analytics


Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Offense

Syracuse: 1.149 PPP (80)
Virginia:
 1.237 PPP (17)

Defense

Syracuse: 1.031 PPP (68)
Virginia:
 0.982 PPP (22)

Tempo

Syracuse: 68.1 (134)
Virginia:
 65.5 (275)

Effective field goal percentage (offense)

Syracuse: 53.1% (101)
Virginia:
 55.2% (44)

Effective field goal percentage (defense)

Syracuse: 48.0% (55)
Virginia:
 45.0% (8)

Bench minutes

Syracuse: 30.8% (230)
Virginia:
 35.5% (111)

Keys to Odom Ball


Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Twos (offense)

Syracuse: 54.6% (81)
Virginia:
 56.4% (50)

Twos (defense)

Syracuse: 47.9% (53)
Virginia:
 44.8% (9)

Threes (offense)

Syracuse: 33.7% (199)
Virginia:
 35.9% (74)

Threes (defense)

Syracuse: 32.1% (85)
Virginia:
 30.3% (38)

Rebounds (offense)

Syracuse: 30.1% (203)
Virginia:
 40.0% (3)

Rebounds (defense)

Syracuse: 67.5% (269)
Virginia:
 70.6% (124)

Turnover rate (offense)

Syracuse: 16.2% (133)
Virginia:
 15.6% (85)

Turnover rate (defense)

Syracuse: 18.9% (78)
Virginia:
 16.2% (234)

Game Details


Syracuse (13-10, 4-6 ACC, NET: 69) at Virginia (19-3, 8-2 ACC, NET: 16)
Day/Time: Saturday, noon ET
TV: ESPN (Roy Philpott & Jon Crispin)

Forecast


KenPom: Virginia 80-67
BartTorvik: Virginia 79-66
ESPN BPI: Virginia +10.7

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Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, TikTok, BlueSky, or subscribe to Substack or his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].