The Virginia kids talked, ahead of the Duke game, about the need to respect their opponent. Probably went overboard there: they practically asked for autographs and posed for selfies instead of trying to compete.
Let’s see if the ‘Hoos can get back on track Tuesday night against a Wake Forest team that seems to be better than me than its 15-14 record would seem to indicate.
The Deacs played Duke better in Cameron, lost by one in OT to Michigan – that one was back in November, but still.
And they’re 4-2 in their last six.
I wouldn’t look past them, is what I’m saying.
Game Details
Wake Forest (15-14, 6-10 ACC, NET: 69) at Virginia (25-4, 13-3 ACC, NET: 15)
Day/Time: Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ACCN
Podcast
Getting to know: Wake Forest
6’7” sophomore Juke Harris is a big-time scorer (21.4 ppg, 6.6 rebounds/g, 45.4% FG, 34.7% 3FG, 7.0 FTAs/g).
I wonder who Ryan Odom puts on him, since Wake goes with a two-guard, three-forward lineup for about 65 percent of its minutes, with Harris alongside 6’7” senior Tre’Von Spillers (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rebounds/g, 54.2% FG, 33.3% 3FG), 6’8” junior Omaha Biliew (6.0 ppg, 43.4% FG, 35.4% 3FG) and 6’10” junior Cooper Schwieger (5.3 ppg, 54.8% FG, 39.3% 3FG).
The lineup has size – the starter the past two games at the point is 6’4” freshman Isaac Carr (6.5 ppg 22.5 minutes/g over the past two), and the off-guard is 6’5” junior Myles Colvin (12.2 ppg, 41.6% FG, 37.6% 3FG).
Colvin had 32 points (9-of-12 FG, 7-of-8 3FG, 7-of-7 FT) in Wake’s 88-83 win over Syracuse on Saturday.
The other options at guard are 6’5” sophomore Mehki Mason (7.1 ppg, 37.1% FG, 32.2% 3FG) and 6’2” sophomore Sebastian Akins (5.3 ppg, 41.4% FG, 14.3% 3FG).
Analytics: Wake Forest vs. UVA
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Wake Forest offense: 1.171 PPP (66)
Virginia defense: 0.963 PPP (16)
Virginia offense: 1.225 PPP (29)
Wake Forest defense: 1.065 PPP (111)
At the Rim
Wake Forest offense: 290/431, 66.1% (FGA/g: 323; FG%: 81)
Virginia defense: 264/474, 55.7% (FGA/g: 83; FG%: 17)
Virginia offense: 367/581, 63.2% (FGA/g: 104; FG%: 150)
Wake Forest defense: 316/472, 66.9% (FGA/g: 79; FG%: 320)
Paint 2s
Wake Forest offense: 165/345, 47.8% (FGA/g: 92; FG%: 34)
Virginia defense: 136/367, 37.1% (FGA/g: 307; FG%: 32)
Virginia offense: 116/266, 43.6% (FGA/g: 262; FG%: 118)
Wake Forest defense: 129/295, 43.7% (FGA/g: 157: FG%: 240)
Midrange 2s
Wake Forest offense: 69/188, 36.7% (FGA/g: 148; FG%: 176)
Virginia defense: 83/236, 35.2% (FGA/g: 336; FG%: 134)
Virginia offense: 40/96, 41.7% (FGA/g: 326; FG%: 47)
Wake Forest defense: 50/132, 37.9% (FGA/g: 35; FG%: 226)
Threes
Wake Forest offense: 263/768, 34.2% (3FGA/g: 62; 3FG%: 168)
Virginia defense: 194/631, 30.7% (3FGA/g: 120; 3FG%: 35)
Virginia offense: 294/825, 35.6% (3FGA/g: 29; 3FG%: 86)
Wake Forest defense: 265/795, 33.3% (3FGA/g: 347; 3FG%: 141)
Free throws
Wake Forest defense: 20.6 FTAs/g (180); 76.7% (39)
Virginia defense: 19.8 FTAs/g (138)
Virginia offense: 20.6 FTAs/g (177); 71.6% (219)
Wake Forest defense: 21.1 FTAs/g (220)
Rebounds
Offensive-Wake Forest: 30.4% (193)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.3% (98)
Offensive-Virginia: 38.5% (7)
Defensive-Wake Forest: 67.4% (287)
Turnover rate
Wake Forest offense: 15.5% (95)
Virginia defense: 16.0% (233)
Virginia offense: 15.9% (126)
Wake Forest defense: 18.6% (79)
Analysis
Wake is too soft defensively – they give up a lot at the rim and in the paint, and don’t rebound well.
They can score, but could have a challenge against Virginia’s elite interior defense.
I would look for Virginia to get healthy offensively after the ugly outing at Duke.
Forecast
KenPom: Virginia 81-67
BartTorvik: Virginia 80-67
ESPN BPI: Virginia +11.1
ICYMI: UVA Basketball recent archives
- UVA Basketball: Man, Duke put quite the thumping on our ‘Hoos there
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos humble Will Wade, NC State, back to the Stone Age
- UVA Basketball: Cavaliers outlast Miami, 86-83, in instant classic on Tony Bennett Day
- UVA Basketball: ‘Hoos dominant in 94-68 blowout win at Georgia Tech
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Chris Graham
