A poll out on Wednesday from Christopher Newport University gives Democrat Elaine Luria a three-point lead on MAGA incumbent Jen Kiggans in the Second District congressional race in Hampton Roads.
The 2026 midterm race is a reprise of the 2022 midterm race in which Kiggans unseated Luria by three points, in a mild upset.
The 2022 cycle was with a Democratic president, and the political science on these things is that midterm congressional elections tend to end up with the party of the incumbent president losing seats in 50/50 districts to the party out of power.
That situation is obviously reversed heading into 2026.
Some details from the poll internals
- 19 percent of Second District voters surveyed have already cast their ballots, including 29 percent of Democrats, 16 percent of independents, and 13 percent of Republicans.
- Luria leads among independents (45 percent-38 percent), women (57 percent-36 percent), Black voters (84 percent-7 percent) and college-educated voters (53 percent-38 percent).
- Kiggans leads among men (49 percent to 37 percent), White voters (58 percent to 35 percent), and voters without college degrees (49 percent to 38 percent).
- Those surveyed are giving incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Warner a 51 percent-37 percent lead over Republican Bert Mizusawa.
- President Trump has a 33 percent approval/62 percent disapproval
- Abigail Spanberger has a 42 percent/49 percent disapproval split.
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Chris Graham
