The Washington Nationals, that group that was once 19-31, which you may have read about once, is now the favorite to win the National League.
Go figure, right?
Don’t go reserving your hotel rooms for World Series week just yet, though.
The St. Louis Cardinals, the NL Central champion, won five of the seven games between the two in 2019, including two of three in St. Louis in September.
So, there’s that. Yes, the other series win for the Cards was back in April, against that other Nats team, the one on its way to that 19-31 start.
Other than the season matchup, you probably do have to like the Nats going into this series, though St. Louis the betting-line favorite in Game 1.
Breaking down the matchup, you can see the opening for Washington to steal the opener.
Game 1 has Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.3 K/9) going for Washington against Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.0 K/9) for St. Louis.
Mikolas took the loss for the Cardinals in the middle matchup September series, giving up three runs on eight hits in six innings, striking out four and walking one.
The Nats lineup has seen him an awful lot – going a cumulative 33-for-90 against him, slashing .367/.396/.522, with Howie Kendrick going an insane 8-for-11.
Anthony Rendon is 4-for-9 against Mikolas. Juan Soto is 3-for-8.
You really hope Victor Robles gets cleared to play: he’s 4-for-6.
The Cards have hit Sanchez well, not quite as well, but pretty well: 26-for-90, a .289/.354/.444 slash.
Matt Wieters, who had one at bat in the Atlanta NLDS series, has the best numbers against Sanchez: 6-for-15, two homers, 1.267 OPS.
Both sides are hoping to get five or six from their starter and then try to get through the middle innings to get to the back end of their bullpens.
Funny thing about this series for the Nats is that they’re not the only ones with a shaky ‘pen for once.
St. Louis closer Carlos Martinez gave up six runs in three and a third innings in the NLDS, allowing six hits, two of them homers, and walking three.
There is a bit of recency bias when evaluating bullpens. When you’re hot, you’re hot, when you’re not, your fans get nervous when they see you warming up in the bullpen.
Game 1 isn’t likely to be a pretty game, with #4 starters, temperatures at game time in the 40s.
It’s there for the taking, basically.
If the Nats can steal the opener, you’ve got to feel really good, with your aces lined up for Games 2, 3 and 4.
Davey Martinez hasn’t announced who goes when as of this writing on Friday morning. Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 12.7 K/9) would be on normal rest for Game 2 on Saturday, and if you’re going with the normal-rest thing, you’d assume Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 K/9) for Game 3 on Monday, slotting Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.6 K/9) in for Game 4, then, on Tuesday.
Given their relative workloads of late, don’t be surprised to see Corbin actually moved up to go in Game 2, since his last start came all the way back in Game 1 of the NLDS on Oct. 3, with two relief outings, including 22 pitches in a scoreless inning and a third in the Game 5 clincher, on Wednesday, in between.
Adam Wainwright (14-10, 4.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) has been announced as the Game 2 starter for St. Louis. Expect to see Jack Flaherty (11-8, 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.6 K/9) in Game 3, and Dakota Hudson (16-7, 3.35 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.0 K/9) in Game 4.
Story by Chris Graham
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Chris Graham
