NCAA Tournament: What UVA Basketball fans need to know about Tennessee

Tennessee coach Rick Barnes starts three guys 6’10” or taller, though they don’t play together that much, outside of the first three or four minutes.

Still, they can go big, and all three are talented.

And one of them – 6’10” freshman Nate Ament – can take his opposite number out to the perimeter, which was a problem for Virginia in its first-round win over Wright State, which exploited seven-footer Ugonna Onyenso on pick-and-pops, to the tune of Michael Imariagbe going 5-of-9 from behind the arc.

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Game Details

• Tennessee (23-11, #6 seed, Midwest) vs. Virginia (30-5, #3 seed, Midwest
• Day/Time: Sunday, 6:10 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

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Forecast

• KenPom: Tennessee 70-69
• BartTorvik: Tennessee 69-68
• ESPN BPI: Tennessee +2.7

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UVA Basketball coach Ryan Odom is going to need Onyenso and fellow seven-footer Johann Grunloh for their rim protection – because Tennessee is relentless at attacking the paint, averaging 19.3 makes per game, and 13.2 makes per game at the rim.

The guards will need to be better at preventing dribble penetration than they’ve been, and that will require better work from Onyenso and Grunloh defending on pick-and-rolls and dribble handoffs.

The Vols’ point guard, Ja’Kobi Gillespie (18.3 ppg, 5.6 assists/g, 41.1% FG, 34.1% 3FG) makes you pick your poison on pick-and-rolls and DHOs.

Aside from Ament, you can get away with drop-coverage on PRs and DHOs – meaning, with Ament, the guards on the periphery are going to have to cheat off the perimeter to help out.

I think you can get away with that even with Ament and Gillespie in the action – Tennessee only has one perimeter guy, Bishop Boswell (38.7% 3FG), that you would worry about on the back side of PRs and DHOs.

One other thing on the defensive end: Tennessee is #1 nationally in offensive rebounding, maybe because to defend their actions, you tend to get out of position.

Mantra: stops aren’t just forcing misses; gotta snare the board to complete the possession.

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ICYMI

• ‘Hoos 82, Wright State 73: UVA Basketball rallies late to advance in NCAA Tournament
• UVA Basketball: Jacari White shoots Virginia into the second round
• NCAA Tournament: Sam Lewis tech unexpectedly ignites game-closing run in UVA win

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For Virginia on offense, Tennessee uses its length on the perimeter to make it hard to shoot the three, so, need to focus on attacking the paint, where the Vols can be vulnerable (52.5% opp FG% this season), and then force Barnes to overcorrect, to give the shooters space to operate.

I’d love to see Thijs de Ridder attacking early, to set a tone – and to get UT into post doubles that free up our shooters.

Tennessee rotation

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• 6’1” senior Ja’Kobi Gillespie: 18.3 ppg, 5.6 assists/g, 41.1% FG, 34.1% 3FG
• 6’10” freshman Nate Ament: 17.0 ppg, 6.5 rebounds/g, 40.2% FG, 32.8% 3FG, 7.3 FTAs/g
• 6’11” sophomore JP Estrella: 10.2 ppg, 5.4 rebounds/g, 61.2% FG, 40% (4-of-10 on the season) 3FG
• 6’11” senior Felix Okpara: 7.8 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 1.4 blocks/g, 60.0% FG, 36.4% (4-of-11 on the season) 3FG
• 6’8” junior Jaylen Carey: 7.2 ppg, 6.1 rebounds/g, 47.1% FG
• 6’4” freshman Bishop Boswell: 6.2 ppg, 4.5 rebounds/g, 43.9% FG, 38.7% 3FG
• 6’8” freshman DeWayne Brown: 4.9 ppg, 3.8 rebounds/g, 57.8% FG
• 6’5” freshman Amari Evans: 4.3 ppg, 3.2 rebounds/g, 43.7% FG, 23.3% 3FG
• 6’3” sophomore Ethan Burg: 2.7 ppg, 48.1% FG, 45.5% 3FG

Virginia rotation

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• 6’9” freshman Thijs de Ridder: 15.4 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 50.5% FG, 34.0% 3FG
• 6’5” senior Malik Thomas: 12.4 ppg, 3.9 rebounds/g, 41.2% FG, 34.8% 3FG
• 6’6” junior Sam Lewis: 10.8 ppg, 3.7 rebounds/g, 46.2% FG, 40.9% 3FG
• 5’10” freshman Chance Mallory: 9.3 ppg, 3.7 rebounds/g, 3.6 assists/g, 42.1% FG, 34.9% 3FG
• 6’3” senior Jacari White: 9.3 ppg, 47.5% FG, 44.7% 3FG
• 7’0” freshman Johann Grunloh: 7.3 ppg, 5.2 rebounds/g, 2.2 blocks/g, 53.9% FG, 35.0% 3FG
• 7’0” senior Ugonna Onyenso: 6.6 ppg, 5.0 rebounds/g, 2.9 blocks/g, 56.3% FG, 27.8% 3FG
• 6’4” senior Dallin Hall: 5.9 ppg, 4.3 assists/g, 42.0% FG, 32.3% 3FG
• 6’7” senior Devin Tillis: 4.3 ppg, 39.8% FG, 38.1% 3FG

Analytics: Tennessee vs. UVA

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Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams

Points per possession

Virginia offense: 1.227 PPP (28)
Tennessee defense: 0.945 PPP (12)

Tennessee offense: 1.211PPP (33)
Virginia defense: 0.965 PPP (16)

Rebounds

Offensive-Virginia: 37.9% (10)
Defensive-Tennessee: 72.3% (58)

Offensive-Tennessee: 45.0% (1)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.0% (104)

Turnover rate

Virginia offense: 16.1% (148)
Tennessee defense: 16.4% (199)

Tennessee offense: 17.4% (225)
Virginia defense: 15.5% (256)

Shooting zones-Virginia offense vs. Tennessee defense

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Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics

Virginia in the paint: 16.5/28.9, 57.0%
Virginia threes: 10.2/28.1, 36.3%
Virginia FTs: 19.8 FTA/g, 73.1%

Tennessee D in the paint: 13.1/25.1, 52.5%
Tennessee D on threes: 7.8/25.6, 30.4%
Tennessee opponent FTs: 20.6 FTA/g

Shooting zones-Tennessee offense vs. Virginia defense

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Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics

Tennessee in the paint: 19.3/34.7, 56.2%
Tennessee threes: 6.6/19.4, 33.8%
Tennessee FTs: 23.3 FTA/g, 69.4%

Virginia D in the paint: 13.6/28.9, 47.2%
Virginia D on threes: 7.0/22.5, 31.3%
Virginia opponent FTs: 19.3 FTA/g