Miami (Ohio) vs. Auburn: Neither, actually, has an NCAA at-large resume

Bruce Pearl is a slimeball, but TNT Sports gives him a mic, and he uses it, among other self-serving things, to promote his kid, Steven Pearl, who took over as head coach at Auburn when Bruce bailed on his team on the eve of the season.

Auburn, at 15-14, losers of seven of its last eight, is still on the NCAA Tournament bubble, entirely due to the love that Auburn gets from the computers, which don’t care that a team has lost seven of its last eight.

Bruce Pearl has decided that Miami (Ohio), which can’t get anybody in the Power 5 to schedule them, because, obviously, is the stumbling block to his kid’s 15-14 team getting a bid.

Thing is, the eye test – Miami U. is 29-0 – would seem to make it hard to put them behind a team a game over .500 ahead of them on the cut line, even if Miami loses a game between now and Selection Sunday, either one of its final two regular-season games, or a game in the MAC Tournament.

I ran the numbers.

NCAA Tournament Resume: Auburn

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Quad 1: 5-11
Quad 2: 2-2
Quad3/4: 8-1

Topline

• NET: 38
• RPI: 53
• ELO: 76

Resume

• KPI: 45
• SOR: 45
• WAB: 48

Predictive

• BPI: 28
• KenPom: 40
• BartTorvik: 45

Average: 46.4
NCAA Tournament seed projection: Second Four Out

NCAA Tournament Resume: Miami (Ohio)

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Quad 1: 0-0
Quad 2: 1-0
Quad3/4: 25-0
Non-D1: 3-0

Topline

• ELO: 21
• RPI: 29
• NET: 52

Resume

• SOR: 21
• WAB: 32
• KPI: 48

Predictive

• BartTorvik: 78
• KenPom: 86
• BPI: 86

Average: 50.6
NCAA Tournament seed projection: in need of auto bid

Analysis

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Miami’s resume gets buried because the predictive metrics punish them due to the weak schedule, which is a function of nobody in P5 wanting to schedule them.

Meanwhile, the predictive metrics don’t punish Auburn because of its strong schedule, despite the reality of Auburn getting its doors blown off by the likes of:

• Michigan (102-72, Nov. 25)
• Arizona (97-68, Dec. 6)
• Purdue (88-60, Dec. 20)

Congrats, you played a tough schedule, and got beat to crap by the three best teams you played.

And since Jan. 31, you’ve won one game.

The average computer ranking for Auburn translates to a 12 seed; teams below the 11 seed line don’t get at-large bids.

Miami U., unfortunately, is even more on the outside looking in.

I can easily see Miami being left on the outside looking in with one or two losses down the stretch.

Fair or not.

Auburn, at best, is going to be a couple games over .500 when the dust settles.

I don’t see how that lands Auburn an NCAA bid.