Mel Gurtov: Cease-fire in the Middle East seems more remote than ever

“After close to a year of neglect, Netanyahu doesn’t miss a single opportunity to ensure that there won’t be a deal. Not a day goes by in which Netanyahu doesn’t take concrete action to jeopardize the return home of all the hostages.” 

Those are the outraged words of the Hostages and Missing Families Forum, in protest of a cabinet decision to maintain an Israel Defense Forces presence along the Philadelphia Corridor. The corridor is the nine-mile strip that separates southern Gaza from Egypt.

This latest Israeli demand undermines any notion that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is serious about agreeing to even a temporary cease-fire and exchange of prisoners. To the contrary, as the liberal newspaper Ha’aretz says, Israel prefers retrieving dead hostages to making concessions to rescue the living.

Protests across Israel are intensifying as more dead hostages are recovered. An unidentified “senior official” in Netanyahu’s administration said there’s blood on the prime minister’s hands: “He knew there were orders to kill [the hostages] if there’d be rescue attempts.”

Israel’s negotiating position continues to narrow the room for compromise with Hamas. As reported by the New York Times: “Mr. Netanyahu has, in fact, added new conditions to Israel’s demands, additions that his own negotiators fear have created extra obstacles to a deal.” In fact, the one vote against the Corridor presence was by defense minister Yoav Gallant. Reflecting the views of the military, Gallant said the decision would condemn the hostages to death.

Widening Israeli Military Operations in the West Bank

There are plenty of other obstacles to any kind of agreement between Israel and Hamas. One arose following Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ political leader in Gaza, and the appointment of Yahya Sinwar as his successor. Sinwar has been at the top of Israel’s enemy list for some time as its forces search for Hamas fighters. He is generally considered the architect of the Oct. 7 attack and the key figure in any cease-fire deal. Sinwar will not be easily persuaded to accept any Israeli modifications of a cease-fire agreement.

Then there’s the increased settler violence in the West Bank and ongoing IDF military actions in Gaza. Most observers agree that the situation in the West Bank is explosive. Six hundred Palestinians have been killed by the IDF since Oct. 7. In recent days, Israel has launched land and air strikes on two West Bank cities, Jenin and Tulkarem, and a refugee camp.

The UN secretary-general has called for the offensive to stop, but clearly it is just the beginning of another major military campaign, the real purpose of which is to extend Israel’s occupation at the behest of the settler population. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote on X:

“We must deal with the threat just as we deal with the terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, including the temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents and whatever steps might be required. This is a war in every respect, and we must win it.” 

Ronen Bar, the head of Shin Bet, Israel’s security agency, warned Netanyahu in a letter that settlers’ violence amounted to “terror,” and “a large stain on Judaism and on all of us.”

To the far right, there is no such “stain” but rather an opportunity to remove the Palestinian population altogether. For some, occupying the West Bank is also an attractive real estate investment. Thus, according to a researcher for Lawfare, “a whole host of Israeli subsidies, including housing benefits, tax breaks, and infrastructure development, make settlement life an attractive proposition to some investors.” Any such sales, however, probably violate a number of international human rights and war crimesstatutes.

No End in Sight

In Gaza, meanwhile, the death toll mounts. It is now around 42,000. Schools and medical facilities remain under Israeli fire, and more and more Palestinians are being squeezed into so-called “humanitarian zones” that are in fact subject to attack.

Finally, we have Israel’s supposedly preemptive air strike against Hezbollah’s missile and drone bases in Lebanon. Both sides seem anxious, however, not to escalate further—in Hezbollah’s case, probably at the insistence of Iran.  But the constant exchanges of fire add greatly to the disruption of the peace process.

In short, it’s hard to find any encouraging news other than a just-announced pause to allow the vaccination of children in Gaza to stem a polio outbreak. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the latest negotiations, without the presence of Hamas, are the last best chance for peace. In that case, expect this war without end to continue.

Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University and blogs at In the Human Interest.