Game Details
Virginia (25-3, 13-2 ACC, NET: 15) at Duke (26-2, 14-1 ACC, NET: 2)
Day/Time: Saturday, noon ET
TV: ESPN
Forecast
KenPom: Duke 75-65
BartTorvik: Duke 74-65
ESPN BPI: Duke +12.5
Featured matchup
The marquee matchup, from our perspective, will be Thijs de Ridder (16.0 ppg, 6.3 rebounds/g, 4.0 assists/g, 52.4% FG, 32.5% 3FG, 5.0 FTAs/g) against Duke’s Cameron Boozer (22.7 ppg, 10.1 rebounds/g, 58.3% FG, 40.8% 3FG, 6.6 FTAs/g).
Boozer, at 6’9”, 250, is a projected top four pick; de Ridder, at 6’9”, 238, is, right now, still on the outside looking in, in terms of the 2026 draft.
The scouts in attendance on Saturday will probably be more focused on how Boozer fares against a big, physical Euro than the other way around, but this is nonetheless a chance for our guy to make some money.
Analytics: Duke vs. UVA
Data: KenPom and CBB Analytics; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Duke offense: 1.276 PPP (7)
Virginia defense: 0.961 PPP (17)
Virginia offense: 1.232 PPP (24)
Duke defense: 0.892 PPP (1)
Threes
Duke offense: 249/714, 34.9% (3FGA/g: 95; 3FG%: 129)
Virginia defense: 182/607, 30.0% (3FGA/g: 100; 3FG%: 18)
Virginia offense: 287/790, 36.3% (3FGA/g: 32; 3FG%: 50)
Duke defense: 224/732, 30.6% (3FGA/g: 95; 3FG%: 29)
At the Rim
Duke offense: 421/606, 69.5% (FGA/g: 42; FG%: 28)
Virginia defense: 255/456, 55.9% (FGA/g: 80; FG%: 17)
Virginia offense: 359/570, 63.0% (FGA/g: 86; FG%: 154)
Duke defense: 229/411, 55.7% (FGA/g: 30; FG%: 16)
Paint 2s
Duke offense: 114/234, 48.7% (FGA/g: 314; FG%: 25)
Virginia defense: 132/357, 37.0% (FGA/g: 310; FG%: 38)
Virginia offense: 116/262, 44.3% (FGA/g: 253; FG%: 111)
Duke defense: 108/272, 39.7% (FGA/g: 123: FG%: 108)
Midrange 2s
Duke offense: 26/72, 36.1% (FGA/g: 346; FG%: 188)
Virginia defense: 82/235, 34.9% (FGA/g: 346; FG%: 127)
Virginia offense: 39/91, 42.9% (FGA/g: 328; FG%: 31)
Duke defense: 76/212, 35.8% (FGA/g: 304; FG%: 168)
Free throws
Duke defense: 22.5 FTAs/g (90); 72.5% (182)
Virginia defense: 20.0 FTAs/g (162)
Virginia offense: 20.9 FTAs/g (170); 70.5% (229)
Duke defense: 13.4 FTAs/g (2)
Rebounds
Offensive-Duke: 37.0% (17)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.2% (96)
Offensive-Virginia: 39.1% (4)
Defensive-Duke: 75.2% (9)
Turnover rate
Duke offense: 15.8% (117)
Virginia defense: 16.0% (233)
Virginia offense: 15.9% (124)
Duke defense: 18.8% (70)
Analysis
Duke attacks the hell out of the rim, and somehow defends the rim as well as Virginia does, without getting called for fouls.
Yes, “somehow.”
The defense has a weakness – the Dookies are susceptible to giving up threes.
Virginia needs to attack the paint, try to get Duke’s bigs into foul trouble, but also be focused on using dribble penetration to get threes for the wings.
Virginia has had trouble with rebounding of late – its offensive rebounding percentage in the last five (33.7%) is just 77th nationally; the ‘Hoos will have to get closer to its 39% season rate to have a chance in this one.
So, offensive boards, avoid cheap ACC HQ-directive fouls that put Duke on the line and get our guys in foul trouble, hit threes.
That’s how this one is winnable.
Game coverage
Media timeout: Duke 9-5, 15:41/1st
Isaiah Evans has three threes. The first two were the result of defensive mixups on dribble handoffs that left him open. The third was a make against a strong closeout.
Both teams have three offensive rebounds.
Media timeout: Duke 15-7, 11:48/1st
Virginia is getting no dribble penetration: six of the 10 FGAs are threes. Missed three open threes; gotta make the open looks when they’re there.
Thijs de Ridder called for two cheap fouls, as you would expect.
Virginia timeout: Duke 28-12, 5:46/1st
Virginia is 4-of-19 from the floor, 2-of-13 from three.
Combination of missed open shots and forced shots because they can’t get dribble penetration.
Media timeout: Duke 32-19, 3:51/1st
Cameron Boozer hasn’t made a bucket from the field, but he’s 5-of-6 at the line, and about to go back there.
Surprised?
Half: Duke 41, Virginia 26
Duke: 11-of-25 FG, 8-of-13 3FG, 0-of-7 at the rim
UVA: 8-of-25 FG, 4-of-17 3FG, 3-of-6 at the rim
Points in the paint: Virginia 8-4
Free throws: Duke 11-of-12, Virginia 6-of-7
Cameron Boozer: 0-of-4 FG, 11-of-12 FT
Game plan going forward:
- attack the paint instead of settling for threes
- stop breathing on and looking at Boozer, to reduce the foul calls
Media timeout: Duke 49-32, 15:50/2nd
Virginia is attacking the paint more, picked up a couple of fouls, has made a couple of threes.
Still losing ground.
Not getting stops – stops are misses with rebounds.
Duke has an 11-2 advantage in second chance points.
Offensive rebounding, again, is lacking – 4-of-21 today.
Media timeout: Duke 55-37, 11:51/2nd
Whatever iota of hope there may have been going into the break has been extinguished.
I’m not even sure we get much from this one at this point – we’re in garbage time.
Just make sure nobody gets hurt, and get ready for Wake.
Oh, and Cory Alexander can eat a d—.
That clown actually just said Jon Scheyer is the ACC Coach of the Year.
For leading the preseason #1 team to the ACC regular-season title.
Great job!
Media timeout: Duke 63-43, 7:37/2nd
What we’ve learned today: Duke is that much better than everybody else in the ACC, and it’s because of their defense.
Virginia had 86 against Miami (1.323 PPP) and 90 against NC State (1.286 PPP), two NCAA Tournament teams, in its last two games.
Today: 43 points, 14-of-46 FG, 7-of-31 3FG, 0.935 PPP.
Media timeout: Duke 70-45, 3:53/2nd
Note: 51 possessions. This is TB tempo today.
Final: Duke 77, Virginia 51
Duke never trailed, and held a Virginia team that was averaging 82.3 points per game to 51, in a 77-51 win.
The lesson learned today: if you let the opponent dictate, and the opponent has the level of talent and coaching of a Duke, you’re going to get it handed to you.
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Chris Graham
