Game Details
- Tennessee (23-11, #6 seed, Midwest) vs. Virginia (30-5, #3 seed, Midwest
- Day/Time: Sunday, 6:10 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
Forecast
- KenPom: Tennessee 70-69
- BartTorvik: Tennessee 69-68
- ESPN BPI: Tennessee +2.7
Tennessee rotation
- 6’1” senior Ja’Kobi Gillespie: 18.3 ppg, 5.6 assists/g, 41.1% FG, 34.1% 3FG
- 6’10” freshman Nate Ament: 17.0 ppg, 6.5 rebounds/g, 40.2% FG, 32.8% 3FG, 7.3 FTAs/g
- 6’11” sophomore JP Estrella: 10.2 ppg, 5.4 rebounds/g, 61.2% FG, 40% (4-of-10 on the season) 3FG
- 6’11” senior Felix Okpara: 7.8 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 1.4 blocks/g, 60.0% FG, 36.4% (4-of-11 on the season) 3FG
- 6’8” junior Jaylen Carey: 7.2 ppg, 6.1 rebounds/g, 47.1% FG
- 6’4” freshman Bishop Boswell: 6.2 ppg, 4.5 rebounds/g, 43.9% FG, 38.7% 3FG
- 6’8” freshman DeWayne Brown: 4.9 ppg, 3.8 rebounds/g, 57.8% FG
- 6’5” freshman Amari Evans: 4.3 ppg, 3.2 rebounds/g, 43.7% FG, 23.3% 3FG
- 6’3” sophomore Ethan Burg: 2.7 ppg, 48.1% FG, 45.5% 3FG
Virginia rotation
- 6’9” freshman Thijs de Ridder: 15.4 ppg, 6.2 rebounds/g, 50.5% FG, 34.0% 3FG
- 6’5” senior Malik Thomas: 12.4 ppg, 3.9 rebounds/g, 41.2% FG, 34.8% 3FG
- 6’6” junior Sam Lewis: 10.8 ppg, 3.7 rebounds/g, 46.2% FG, 40.9% 3FG
- 5’10” freshman Chance Mallory: 9.3 ppg, 3.7 rebounds/g, 3.6 assists/g, 42.1% FG, 34.9% 3FG
- 6’3” senior Jacari White: 9.3 ppg, 47.5% FG, 44.7% 3FG
- 7’0” freshman Johann Grunloh: 7.3 ppg, 5.2 rebounds/g, 2.2 blocks/g, 53.9% FG, 35.0% 3FG
- 7’0” senior Ugonna Onyenso: 6.6 ppg, 5.0 rebounds/g, 2.9 blocks/g, 56.3% FG, 27.8% 3FG
- 6’4” senior Dallin Hall: 5.9 ppg, 4.3 assists/g, 42.0% FG, 32.3% 3FG
- 6’7” senior Devin Tillis: 4.3 ppg, 39.8% FG, 38.1% 3FG
Analytics: Tennessee vs. UVA
Data: KenPom; rankings: among 365 D1 teams
Points per possession
Virginia offense: 1.227 PPP (28)
Tennessee defense: 0.945 PPP (12)
Tennessee offense: 1.211PPP (33)
Virginia defense: 0.965 PPP (16)
Rebounds
Offensive-Virginia: 37.9% (10)
Defensive-Tennessee: 72.3% (58)
Offensive-Tennessee: 45.0% (1)
Defensive-Virginia: 71.0% (104)
Turnover rate
Virginia offense: 16.1% (148)
Tennessee defense: 16.4% (199)
Tennessee offense: 17.4% (225)
Virginia defense: 15.5% (256)
Shooting zones-Virginia offense vs. Tennessee defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
Virginia in the paint: 16.5/28.9, 57.0%
Virginia threes: 10.2/28.1, 36.3%
Virginia FTs: 19.8 FTA/g, 73.1%
Tennessee D in the paint: 13.1/25.1, 52.5%
Tennessee D on threes: 7.8/25.6, 30.4%
Tennessee opponent FTs: 20.6 FTA/g
Shooting zones-Tennessee offense vs. Virginia defense
Per game FGs/FGAs; Data: CBB Analytics
Tennessee in the paint: 19.3/34.7, 56.2%
Tennessee threes: 6.6/19.4, 33.8%
Tennessee FTs: 23.3 FTA/g, 69.4%
Virginia D in the paint: 13.6/28.9, 47.2%
Virginia D on threes: 7.0/22.5, 31.3%
Virginia opponent FTs: 19.3 FTA/g
Game Coverage
First media timeout: Tennessee 12-8, 14:55/1st
JP Estrella just picked up his second foul, which could shift things lineup-wise for UT.
Nice intensity. Tennessee is longer and more athletic, and that’s saying something.
UT has assists on all five of its makes. Virginia has no assists on its three makes.
Second media timeout: Virginia 20-16, 11:22/1st
Jacari White with two threes, and suddenly, an explosion – Virginia is 5-of-11 from three.
Good dribble penetration getting clean looks.
Feels like a faster pace, but right now, it’s a 60-possession pace game.
Virginia timeout: Tennessee 28-20, 6:32/1st
UT on a 12-0 run; Virginia scoreless for the last 5:19.
Seven straight misses. Just 1-of-5 at the rim.
Media timeout: Tennessee 28-22, 5:47/1st
Nate Ament just picked up his second foul. That’s two of their bigs with two.
No foul trouble for Virginia.
Only down six with UT shooting 50 percent with just one turnover.
Media timeout: Tennessee 33-25, 2:41/1st
Nothing to be upset about here – Tennessee is just the better team in this first half.
They’re running their stuff, and taking us out of our stuff.
- UT: 14-of-29 FG, 5-of-11 3FG, 5-of-10 at the rim
- UVA: 9-of-28 FG, 6-of-15 3FG, 2-of-9 at the rim
30-second timeout Tennessee: UT 36-31, 24.0 seconds/1st
Virginia is hanging around despite getting dramatically outplayed.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Half: Tennessee 36, Virginia 31
The game, by the stats, shouldn’t be this close.
Tennessee shot 15-of-32, 5-of-11 from three and 1-of-4 at the line; Virginia was 11-of-32, 6-of-16 from three and 3-of-6 at the line.
It just felt like UT was getting its way – when Virginia doubled the ball, the guards threw lob passes for dunks; when UT doubled, Virginia struggled to figure out what to do.
Turns out, the eye test was deceiving: the Vols only had the two lob dunks and were 5-of-10 at the rim and 9-of-18 in the paint.
Virginia was 3-of-11 at the rim and 4-of-14 in the paint.
Tennessee had an 18-8 advantage in points in the paint.
Rebounds were big for Virginia – 23-18 in UVA’s favor, with seven offensive boards (UT had three).
The Vols had 13 assists on their 15 makes; Virginia had five assists on its 11 makes.
Tennessee played well in the first half, Virginia scrapped.
Get this cleaned up, and …
Media timeout: Tennessee 42-37, 15:46/2nd
Virginia has two threes and two turnovers this half.
Nate Ament is starting to assert himself – six points in the second half, and going to the line after the timeout, all midrange stuff.
Too big for Sam Lewis, too quick for Thijs de Ridder.
Media timeout: Tennessee 54-48, 11:52/2nd
Weird feeling time: that this is where Virginia starts getting it going.
Tennessee just had a stretch of five straight makes, and it’s still a six-point game.
Let’s test that depth over there.
Virginia timeout: Tennessee 57-51, 10:11/2nd
Tennessee seems to have six or seven guys on the floor. They double the ball on high screens and DHOs, rendering those actions inoperable.
Everything Virginia is getting is one-on-one.
Media timeout: Tennessee 63-58, 7:28/2nd
Tennessee is getting away with some extracurriculars here.
Thijs de Ridder signaled to his teammates that he wanted the ball on the pick-and-pop, then drained it.
Game is on.
Timeout Tennessee: UT 66-64, 5:23/2nd
Tennessee has hit a couple of circus threes, or the game would already be in our favor.
De Ridder is keying this. He wants to play some more.
Media timeout: Tennessee 70-68, 2:39/2nd
De Ridder and Ament are both gassed beyond recognition.
This one comes down to execution.
Can’t analyze who will execute better.
Tennessee timeout: UT 72-71, 59.9 seconds/2nd
A de Ridder three gave UVA a brief lead; a chintzy foul call gave Ament two free throws.
UT ball, 19 on the shot clock.
Final: Tennessee 79, Virginia 72
Tennessee closes on a 9-1 run in the final 1:37, despite not making a bucket from the floor in the final 3:37.
The Vols were 18-of-21 from the line in the second half; Virginia was 3-of-5.
Take away the six clock free throws, still a huge gap there.
And this is with Virginia being the aggressor in the second half – 9-of-14 at the rim; UT was 3-of-5 at the rim.
And got to the line eight more times (for 16 more free throws).
That’s a neat trick there.
Free throw attempts are a function of who attacks more. Except here.
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Chris Graham
