Virginia faces North Carolina on Saturday with its ACC Championship Game fate in its own hands.
You totally expected to read that sentence back in July when the media pegged the ‘Hoos to finish 14th in the conference.
The ‘Hoos (6-1, 3-0 ACC) are a road favorite at UNC (2-4, 0-2 ACC), which is in Year 1 – and maybe Year Only – of the Bill Belichick Era.
I don’t trust any of it, personally.
#16 Virginia at North Carolina | noon ET
Series: North Carolina leads series, 66-59-4
Last meeting: North Carolina, 41-14 (2024)
TV: ACC Network
SiriusXM Radio: SiriusXM 160 / SiriusXM 193 / SiriusXM 371
SiriusXM App: SiriusXM 371 / SiriusXM 955
Line: Virginia -10.5
Over/under: 51.5
Projected final score: Virginia 31, North Carolina 20
Game Notes: Saturday marks the 130th meeting between Virginia and North Carolina in the “South’s Oldest Rivalry,” tied with Auburn-Georgia as the second-most played rivalry in FBS. The series began on Oct. 22, 1892, with Virginia winning 30-18 in Charlottesville.
Virginia is off to its best start since 2007 at 6-1, is bowl eligible for the first time since 2021 and is currently ranked #16 in the AP Poll – their highest since late 2007. The Cavaliers’ rushing attack ranks third in the ACC, averaging 203.9 yards per game.
North Carolina aims to end a three-game losing streak and earn its first ACC win of the season. The Tar Heels boast a strong defense, ranking sixth nationally in red zone defense by allowing opponents to score just 69.6% of the time inside the 20-yard line, and is limiting opponents to 119.2 rushing yards per game.
Pregame coverage
- UVA Football: What you need to know about North Carolina going into Week 9 matchup
- Bill Belichick is struggling in his first year at UNC: But he’s still Bill Freakin’ Belichick
- UVA Football: What the offense needs to focus on to keep the chains moving
- Tony Elliott on injuries: ‘Very rarely will you ever feel 100 percent’ in a football season
- UVA Football: Availability report for ‘Hoos heading into Week 9 matchup with UNC
Game Coverage
Cold open: Both teams go three-and-out on their first possessions.
Of course it’s the case that Carolina, which had eight sacks through six games, got a sack on Chandler Morris, the sixth sack allowed by Virginia now in its eighth game.
Lucky break for the ‘Hoos
A catch by Kobe Paysour that he took inside the UVA 1 looked like a TD, but replay confirmed a fumble just as Paysour was heading out of bounds, and instead of a TD, it’s fumble, touchback, UVA ball at the 20.
Virginia gets on the board first
I don’t like to criticize play-calling, but … Steve Addazio on ACCN is right. Third-and-5 from the 19, and you run a stretch play, assuming you’re going to either get five, or kick?
Will Bettridge was good from 34, but that one doesn’t make a lot of sense.
UVA 3, UNC 0, 4:33/1st
End 1: UVA with the 3-0 lead
Still not seeing the explosive Virginia offense from the first five games.
Just 66 yards of offense, 4.7 yards/play, three first downs.
UNC has 116 total yards, and the turnover at the goal line.
Maybe what we’re seeing here is, our ‘Hoos peaked back in the FSU game
Just giving away points
Two roughing-the-passer penalties and a late-hit penalty got UNC into the red zone.
The D stiffened, and UNC got points on a 34-yard field goal from Rece Verhoff.
I’d say I don’t like the vibe, but this is a second game with this vibe.
It’s hard to figure that there weren’t efforts to address the vibe in between.
UVA 3, UNC 3, 11:30/2nd
A spark?
Jayden Thomas with a 30-yard punt return sets up the offense at the UVA 40.
Need something to spark.
The third-and-3 on the last possession, which ended with UNC’s second sack of the day, was good defensive play-calling by UNC.
UVA likes to run crossing routes on third-and-mediums. Carolina sat back in a zone and took both crossers away.
Spark realized
Quick-strike six-play, 60-yard drive.
Morris spun his way out of a sack on the first play and got an eight-yard gain.
The TD: a 30-yard pass from Morris to Trell Harris, who broke a tackle at the UNC 10 and raced into the end zone for the score.
Players making plays.
UVA 10, UNC 3, 6:36/1st
Carolina with the answer
Ten plays, 75 yards, ate up clock – 5:12.
Carolina got even with a 1-yard QB sneak by Gio Lopez.
Picked up a couple of third-and-mediums.
UVA 10, UNC 10, 1:24/2nd
Half: UVA 10, UNC 10
Tony Elliott with the timeout ahead of the 50-yard field-goal try from Rece Verhoff.
Verhoff made the one that didn’t count; then hooked the one that counted to the left.
The UVA possession in the two-minute drill, and here’s me, hating to criticize play calls, wow.
It’s third-and-3, and they went with the deep out to Kam Courtney.
The pass was on the money, and Courtney should have reeled it in.
Just get the damn first down.
Carolina has a 246-126 advantage in total yards, and it’s 10-10.
Gio Lopez is 17-of-25 for 173 yards, which is already a season-high for him for an entire game.
Virginia has four three-and-outs on its six offensive possessions.
This is, unfortunately, vintage Tony Elliott Era football.
Now both teams have flubbed inside the 1
Virginia had third-and-goal and fourth-and-goal at the 1, and didn’t use the wildcat snap to J’Mari Taylor, the go-to play in these situations this season, on either one.
Des Kitchings is outsmarting himself.
It’s like he assumed Carolina would be prepared to take that away, so he took himself away from using his best play.
And now both teams trade INTs
Chandler Morris was picked off on the first play after the D got the stop, forced a punt, and set the offense up at midfield.
Carolina drove into the red zone, then Mitchell Melton, dropping back in coverage on a zone blitz, broke up a pass into the flat, then picked off the carom at the UVA 5.
Just be the best team in the stadium.
Everything I wrote about in the pregame was … wrong
Carolina had eight sacks total coming in: they have five today.
Not good in coverage: Morris is 18-of-31 for 176 yards.
I did write about their run defense being good, so I was right about that.
Overtime
Is this a team of destiny?
Certainly don’t deserve to win this one.
The D stepped up again in the second half. Carolina had 82 yards of offense.
Problem was: Virginia had 108.
Final: UVA 17, UNC 16
Virginia started on offense, and Chandler Morris, who was off all day, came up with the big play, checking into a run on third-and-7 at the UNC 10, then, with the bum left shoulder, bullying his way to a first down at the UNC 3.
J’Mari Taylor scored on the wildcat play that should have been used back in the third quarter to put the ‘Hoos on top.
Carolina scored on a 9-yard TD pass from Lopez to Davion Gause, then Bill Belichick decided to go for the two and the win.
The two-point play came up a yard short.
My life expectancy just took another hit.
Full recap with analysis to come.
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Chris Graham
