Armaan Franklin shot 43.2 percent from three-point range a year ago at Indiana. Casey Morsell, who left Virginia for NC State, shot 26.3 percent from three in 2020-2021, actually an improvement from the 17.6 percent rate he put up in 2019-2020.
Morsell had been the centerpiece of the 2019 recruiting class, so you hated to see him leave, but, dang, you can’t have your two guard shooting in the 20s from three.
Um.
Then Armaan Franklin became Casey Morsell.
Our damn luck.
Franklin is shooting 20.4 percent from three through 10 games this season – 11-of-54.
And now that I’m diving into his stats, I notice that his numbers this season are more in line with his freshman season at IU, when he was 26.6 percent from three-point range – 17-of-64.
Now you have to wonder: is his shooting this season the aberration, or was last season the aberration?
Maybe he’s a 20-something percent three-point shooter who just had a hot stretch for a while last season.
Uh, oh.
A look at Indiana’s game-by-games from last season shows us there was a four-game stretch in December 2020 in which Franklin was able to connect on 17-of-26 from three.
His numbers from three the rest of the season: 19-of-59 (32.2 percent).
Might we have recruited ourselves a shooter who was destined for a regression to the mean?
Maybe so.
Morsell, meanwhile, is shooting a cool 40.0 percent from three at NC State, and averaging 11.1 points per game, after averaging 4.2 points per game over two seasons at Virginia.
Yikes.
Maybe we got out of the Casey Morsell business a little too soon.
Or maybe he’s soon due his own regression to the mean.
Story by Chris Graham
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