Grading the bracket: Putting the metrics up against how the committee seeded teams from the ACC

How did Selection Sunday go for the ACC?

Well, we got seven bids. None higher than a four.

Our tournament champ, on an eight-game winning streak, is a nine.

Louisville and Duke, with good metrics, are outside looking in.

Screwjob is a good descriptor.

 

Where We Are

Updated Sunday evening

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Virginia (18-6, 14-4 ACC)

• NET: 12
• KenPom: 10
• BPI: 11
• Sagarin: 8
• KPI: 19
• Avg. Rating: 10

Outlook: An average rating of 10 screams three seed. The profile holds up with a 5-4 record in Quad 1 and 4-1 record in Quad 2. The consensus seems to be four seed. Don’t be surprised if what I tell you comes true, though.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 16

Analysis: Lower than Florida State?

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Florida State (16-6, 12-5 ACC)

• NET: 24
• KenPom: 15
• BPI: 21
• Sagarin: 12
• KPI: 20
• Avg. Rating: 18.4

Outlook: This resume screams five seed. Another one where the consensus seems to have them a four. Again, don’t be surprised after reading this if they’re down a seed line.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 13

Analysis: Lost three of its last five, two of those chances to wrap the ACC regular season and tournament titles. Yeah, sure, our best team.

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North Carolina (18-10, 12-7 ACC)

• NET: 32
• KenPom: 27
• BPI: 25
• Sagarin: 20
• KPI: 35
• Avg. Rating: 27.8

Outlook: Seemed headed toward an 8/9 game next week. May have played their way up to a seven, which helps them avoid a one in the second round.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 31

Analysis: Eight seed seems about right.

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Georgia Tech (17-8, 13-6 ACC)

• NET: 33
• KenPom: 32
• BPI: 35
• Sagarin: 33
• KPI: 30
• Avg. Rating: 32.6

Outlook: One of the hottest teams around with eight straight wins and an ACC Tournament trophy. Still probably an 8/9 game in their future. I wouldn’t want to be the one seed on the weekend in their bracket.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 34

Analysis: You don’t want to face these guys right now. Because now they’re pissed.

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Clemson (16-7, 10-7 ACC)

• NET: 41
• KenPom: 42
• BPI: 38
• Sagarin: 36
• KPI: 16
• Avg. Rating: 34.6

Outlook: Destined for an 8/9 game. Didn’t do themselves any favors in blowing the Miami game.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 27

Analysis: I don’t get the love. A seven? Seriously? That neutral-site win over ‘Bama in December is carrying a lot.

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Syracuse (16-9, 10-8 ACC)

• NET: 40
• KenPom: 41
• BPI: 33
• Sagarin: 34
• KPI: 45
• Avg. Rating: 38.8

Outlook: In. A nine or 10, but in. Next.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 41

Analysis: An 11. OK. Doesn’t matter with Boeheim. He gets to work his magic.

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Virginia Tech (15-6, 9-5 ACC)

• NET: 48
• KenPom: 50
• BPI: 39
• Sagarin: 46
• KPI: 50
• Avg. Rating: 46.6

Outlook: I’m seeing the Hokies as high as a seven in the bracketologies. Seriously? A 46.6 average rating screams bubble. And that’s not accounting for them having only played three games in the past five weeks. I dunno, man.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 37

Analysis: A seven is an awful lot of love for a team that has lost two of its three games since Feb. 6.

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Louisville (13-7, 8-6 ACC)

• NET: 56
• KenPom: 54
• BPI: 60
• Sagarin: 40
• KPI: 37
• Avg. Rating: 49.4

Outlook: I’m seeing unusual love for the Cardinals. The metrics don’t suggest it. The resume enhancers – 1-6 in Quad 1s, 6-0 in Quad 2s – meh. If they get in …

Selection Committee Overall Seed: First Four Out

Analysis: Hard to argue that they had their chances to play their way in.

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Duke (13-11, 11-9 ACC)

• NET: 49
• KenPom: 33
• BPI: 31
• Sagarin: 29
• KPI: 71
• Avg. Rating: 42.6

Outlook: There’s a reason somebody leaked to Reece Davis. If the Hokies and Cardinals are locks, you can’t keep Duke out.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: N/A

Analysis: Whoever felt compelled to leak to ESPN that Duke would accept a bid looks like an idiot now.

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