Crunching the numbers: Can #2 UVA win without Justin Anderson?

As a way to gauge how #2 UVA has performed in the seven-plus games that it has had to play without second-leading scorer Justin Anderson, I did some math.

I added up Virginia’s point totals, offense and defense, before Anderson went down late in the first half of the Feb. 7 win over Louisville, then did the same for the ACC games that it had played to that point.

This helped me determine points per possession, offense and defense, before Justin’s injury and after Justin’s injury.

One last bit of math: and this wasn’t at all scientific, but to get a sense of the strength of the opponents, I used the current rating for each team from KenPom.com, added them up, then determined an average opponent for the two subsets.

 

What I found

• Before JA’s injury: 1.0869 ppp offense, .9020 ppp defense, average opponent KenPom rating .6589
• After JA’s injury: 1.000 ppp offense, .8059 ppp defense, average opponent KenPom rating .6923

 

Takeaways

• I didn’t think before engaging in this exercise that the schedule after Anderson’s injury was stronger than the pre-injury schedule. And it will get tougher when you add in the second game with Louisville on Sunday (improving to .7129). Based on the current KenPom ratings, the average game in the first half was Georgia Tech (KenPom rating .6704), the average game in the second half was Pitt (KenPom rating .7229).
• Offensive productivity is down 7.9 percent since Anderson went down to injury. That much was expected. What I didn’t expect: that the defense has gotten 10.7 percent stingier without Anderson.
• Taken as a whole, scoring margin per possession has improved, from .1849 ppp before Anderson’s injury to .1941 ppp after Anderson’s injury, a 5 percent bump.

 

Analysis

Somehow, some way, Virginia actually played better overall (taking a step back on offense, but taking a step or two forward on defense) against a tougher aggregate schedule.

I’ve been saying for weeks that I can’t imagine UVA making a deep run in March and into April without Anderson in the mix. I’m going to take that back now. This team can clearly be effective with or without him in the lineup.

– Column by Chris Graham