ACC Bracketology 2021: Breakdown of locks, solids, goods, work to do, who has to win out

Duke did what it needed to do on Tuesday in the opening round of the 2021 ACC Tournament, blitzing Boston College, 83-51.

The win for the Blue Devils sets up a do-or-die matchup with Louisville in the first game of the evening session on Wednesday.

The opening game on Wednesday should also be a scrap – with Syracuse and N.C. State both playing for their NCAA Tournament lives in the nooner.

Clemson and North Carolina are locks, but in need of wins to improve on seeding. Both seem destined right now for 8/9 games next week, and if you can get out of a possible second-round matchup with a one – a Gonzaga, a Baylor, a Michigan – you do what you can.

Where We Are

Updated Tuesday night

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Virginia (17-6, 13-4 ACC)

• NET: 13
• KenPom: 12
• BPI: 9
• Sagarin: 10
• KPI: 24
• Avg. Rating: 13.6

Outlook: Lock. Chance to play up to a three seed with an ACC Tournament final appearance. A four with a win and a loss in the Friday semifinal. Could fall to a five with a loss in the quarterfinals on Thursday.

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Florida State (15-5, 11-4 ACC)

• NET: 22
• KenPom: 14
• BPI: 16
• Sagarin: 12
• KPI: 20
• Avg. Rating: 16.8

Outlook: Lock. Chance to play up to a three seed with an ACC Tournament championship. A five right now.

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Clemson (16-6, 10-6 ACC)

• NET: 36
• KenPom: 39
• BPI: 34
• Sagarin: 32
• KPI: 9
• Avg. Rating: 30.0

Outlook: Lock. Destined for an 8/9 game next week. Could play up to a seven with a run to the ACC Tournament final.

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North Carolina (16-9, 10-6 ACC)

• NET: 39
• KenPom: 31
• BPI: 30
• Sagarin: 26
• KPI: 43
• Avg. Rating: 33.8

Outlook: Lock. Destined for an 8/9 game next week. Could play up to a seven with a run to the ACC Tournament final.

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Georgia Tech (15-9, 11-6 ACC)

• NET: 38
• KenPom: 30
• BPI: 36
• Sagarin: 40
• KPI: 41
• Avg. Rating: 37.0

Outlook: Solid, not quite a lock. Should be in. If they lose on Thursday, it had better be to Clemson, and it would help if it were competitive. Flip side: could play up to a seven seed with a run to the tournament final.

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Virginia Tech (15-5, 9-4 ACC)

• NET: 42
• KenPom: 44
• BPI: 35
• Sagarin: 46
• KPI: 44
• Avg. Rating: 42.2

Outlook: Good. Not a lock. This team has played two games since Feb. 6. A bad loss in the quarterfinal could give the selection committee pause.

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Louisville (13-6, 8-5 ACC)

• NET: 51
• KenPom: 50
• BPI: 58
• Sagarin: 39
• KPI: 32
• Avg. Rating: 46.0

Outlook: Outside looking in right now. A loss to Duke on Wednesday makes for a long wait until Selection Sunday.

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Syracuse (15-8, 9-7 ACC)

• NET: 49
• KenPom: 53
• BPI: 33
• Sagarin: 43
• KPI: 54
• Avg. Rating: 46.4

Outlook: A loss to N.C. State on Wednesday is probably devastating.

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Duke (12-11, 10-9 ACC)

• NET: 60
• KenPom: 37
• BPI: 37
• Sagarin: 38
• KPI: 76
• Avg. Rating: 62.0

Outlook: One down, four more to go.

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N.C. State (13-9, 9-8 ACC)

• NET: 66
• KenPom: 65
• BPI: 46
• Sagarin: 54
• KPI: 104
• Avg. Rating: 67.0

Outlook: Has to win out.

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