The Baltimore Orioles are officially only three games out of the final American League wild card spot with 15 games to play, but.
There’s more to what the O’s need to do than basic math.
Cleveland is currently in the lead for the final AL wild card spot, with a 74-73 record, with Toronto a game out, at 73-74, and Texas two back, at 72-75.
The O’s, at this writing, are 71-76.
Each of the four has 15 games left on the schedule.
Diagnosing where things stand, first, there’s the head-to-heads:
- 3-4 record vs. Cleveland (season series complete)
- 3-4 record vs. Toronto (six games left to play, beginning tonight)
- 2-4 record vs. Texas (season series complete)
Having the six games with Toronto among the final 15 on the schedule is a good thing, a chance to both make up ground, and also, get the tiebreaker over one of the contenders for the final wild card spot.
That’s the good news.
The bad news: the closing schedule, overall, is brutal.
In addition to the six with the Blue Jays, there are six with the New York Yankees (84-62 this season) and three with the Milwaukee Brewers (91-56 this season).
You can maybe write off some of the degree of difficulty with the three against the Brewers because they may be more focused on resting guys, with their playoff position relatively set, but.
They’re only two up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for the #1 spot overall in the National League.
The Yankees, also, are just three games back of Tampa Bay (87-59) for the AL East title, which would get them out of the wild card and straight into the ALDS.
So, no, this 15-game path, perilous.
Now, doing some math, I think we can project the final win-loss record of the third AL wild card team to be in the area of 82-80, given where the teams are now, and recent trends.
Records in their last 10:
- Cleveland: 5-5
- Toronto: 6-4
- Texas: 5-5
- Baltimore: 3-7
I think you can see the issue here.
To get to 82-80, Baltimore – 3-7 in their last 10 – is going to need to go 11-4 down the stretch.
Which, that’s doable – before the recent rough patch, the O’s had gone 8-2 over a 10-game stretch between Aug. 21-Sept. 1.
But the margin for error is … zero.
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Chris Graham
