UVA Football: A lotta love for the ‘Hoos from 1 million SP+ simulations

Bill Connelly, the ESPN guy who invented the SP+ metric, had a column today with the details of the 1 million simulations of the 2026 college football season that he ran using his preseason SP+ numbers.

A lotta love for UVA Football here.

SP+ has Virginia as an odds-on favorite to get into the CFP, the second choice to be the ACC champ, and in the mix to be the national champ.

The world, indeed, has turned upside down.

National title odds, per SP+

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1. Ohio State (14.2%)
2. Oregon (11.1%)
3. Notre Dame (10.4%)
4. Georgia (7.4%)
5. Indiana (7.1%)
6. Texas Tech (4.6%)
7. Miami (4.4%)
8. LSU (4.1%)
9. Texas (3.6%)
10. Texas A&M (2.9%)
11. Missouri (1.8%)
12. Penn State (1.8%)
13. Virginia (1.7%)
14. Alabama (1.7%)
15. Oklahoma (1.6%)
16. Tennessee (1.5%)
17. Michigan (1.4%)
18. BYU (1.4%)
19. Washington (1.3%)
20. Ole Miss (1.2%)

College Football Playoff odds

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1. Notre Dame (71.6%)
2. Ohio State (59.1%)
3. Oregon (58.8%)
4. Texas Tech (55.1%)
5. Indiana (53.1%)
6. Georgia (50.5%)
7. Miami (46.2%)
8. LSU (32.2%)
9. Virginia (32.1%)
10. Penn State (28.6%)
11. BYU (28.4%)
12. Texas A&M (27.9%)
13. Texas (27.5%)
14. Alabama (21.5%)
15. Washington (20.7%)
16. Tennessee (20.2%)
17. Louisville (19.8%)
18. SMU (19.5%)
19. Missouri (19.1%)
20. Iowa (18.5%)

ACC title odds

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1. Miami (29.0%)
2. Virginia (14.1%)
3. Louisville (10.0%)
4. SMU (10.0%)
5. Clemson (8.2%)
6. Virginia Tech (4.6%)
7. Cal (3.8%)
8. Florida State (3.6%)
9. Pitt (3.3%)
10. North Carolina (3.2%)
11. Georgia Tech (2.2%)
12. Duke (2.0%)
13. Wake Forest (1.9%)
14. Stanford (1.7%)
15. NC State (1.2%)
16. Syracuse (0.8%)
17. Boston College (0.3%)