When I work up my previews of upcoming UVA Football opponents, I try to view them in their best light, because that’s how coaches prepare.
This isn’t necessarily easy with North Carolina (2-4, 0-2 ACC), which is oh-fer in its four games against Power 4 opponents, though the Tar Heels, under Bill Belichick, who it feels weird to say is the first-year coach at UNC, finally played to a tight game this past week, in their 21-18 loss at Cal late, late, late Friday night.
#16 Virginia at North Carolina | Saturday, noon | ACC Network
Series: North Carolina leads series, 66-59-4
Last meeting: North Carolina, 41-14 (2024)
Line: Virginia -10.5
Over/under: 51.5
Projected final score: Virginia 31, North Carolina 20
The season numbers for UNC are, ugh, not good: last in the ACC in scoring (18.7 ppg) and total offense (268.5 yards/g), next-to-last in time of possession (27:24 per game).
The defense hasn’t been that bad, considering: Carolina is allowing 25.0 points and 360.0 yards per game, both middle of the pack in the ACC; and been good against the run (119.2 yards/g), though not so much against the pass (137.1 pass efficiency against, 13th in the ACC) and with just eight sacks in the six games (last in the ACC).
The defense being at least decent is why I’m throwing out the book on the season numbers, because they can seduce you into thinking Vegas has it right in making Virginia a 10.5-point road favorite.
I don’t, in general, trust rivalry games where the odds have the road team a double-digit favorite.
The UNC offense
Gio Lopez is back as the starting QB, after missing the Clemson game due to injury.
The South Alabama transfer was a meh 19-of-35 for 167 yards in the loss at Cal last week, but he did connect with wideout Kobe Paysour six times on seven targets for 101 yards.
Of note there: Paysour, a 6’1”, 190-pound senior, had recorded, going into the Cal game, just two catches on nine targets in the 2025 season, after producing 73 catches in his first three seasons in Chapel Hill.
Tailback Benjamin Hall, a thicc 5’11”, 235-pound Michigan transfer, had 68 yards and a touchdown on the ground on 14 carries.
Like Paysour, Hall had barely been used prior to the Cal game – getting just 20 carries in four games ahead of the trip to the Left Coast.
It’s one game, but could be that the coaching staff is figuring some things out personnel-wise.
Defense
I mentioned already that the D only has eight sacks through six games.
The Heels got decent pressure on Cal true freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele – 15 pressures on 44 dropbacks, actually.
Those numbers, much better than the other Power 4 games – six pressures on 37 dropbacks in the loss to TCU, nine pressures on 35 dropbacks in the loss to UCF, 14 pressures on 41 dropbacks in the loss to Clemson (in which Cade Klubnik was a cool 22-of-24 for 254 yards and four TDs, before subbing out in the 38-10 win.)
The best – that is, one good – corner is redshirt freshman Jaiden Patterson, who has a 54.1 NFL passer rating against, three pass breakups and an INT on 15 targets.
Six of the other seven guys in the secondary with at least 100 pass-coverage snaps this season have NFL passer rating against numbers of 100+.
This is an area where UVA needs to take advantage of a defense that can’t get pressure and isn’t good in coverage, by building a game plan around the QB, Chandler Morris, who has struggled the past two weeks, but still has a season NFL passer rating at 100.6, and the receiver room with four wideouts with double-digit catches (Trell Harris and Cam Ross: 28, Jahmal Edrine: 26, Kam Courtney: 11).
Special teams
Placekicker Rece Verhoff, a Marshall transfer, is 7-of-8 on field-goal tries this season, with a long of 49, and two other makes of 40 and 41.
Verhoff has 19 touchbacks on 26 kickoffs, and an average opponent starting field position of 24.0, suggesting that the coverage unit does a good job when the strategy is to kick the ball short.
Punter Tom Maginness is averaging 40.8 yards on his 29 (!) punts.
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Chris Graham
