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UVA Basketball: Early look at NCAA Tournament resume, seeding possibilities

Chris Graham
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Thijs de Ridder. Photo: Mike Ingalls/AFP

Starting with the popularity contest part of this, two wins on the road, one over a ranked team, the other also a Quad 1 win, were only enough to bump the UVA Basketball team up two spots in this week’s AP Top 25.

Virginia (16-2, 5-1 ACC) is 14th in this week’s poll.

It’s all just for entertainment purposes only, so, whatevs.


UVA Basketball: Last week


The ‘Hoos won at Louisville (13-5, 3-3 ACC) on Wednesday; Louisville is ranked 23rd this week, down three spots.

The other win was at SMU (13-5, 2-3 ACC), which is 33rd in the NET as of the start of the business day on Monday.

Not impressive enough, apparently.

Resume: Inside the numbers


The wins at the ‘Ville and at SMU have Virginia at 4-1 in Quad 1 games this season.

For context, last season’s team was 2-9 in Quad 1s; the 2023-2024 team, which got an at-large NCAA bid, was 2-8 in Quad 1s.

The 2022-2023 team that won a share of the ACC regular-season title was 5-5 in Quad 1s.

Upcoming Quad 1 opportunities on the schedule include:

  • North Carolina (NET: 29), Jan. 24
  • Ohio State (NET: 37), Feb. 14 (neutral: Nashville)
  • at Duke (NET: 2), Feb. 28

The home games with Miami (Feb. 21) and NC State (Feb. 24) could end up being Quad 1s.

Miami is currently at 31 in the NET; State is at 34.

Home games against teams ranked in the Top 30 of the NET are considered Quad 1.

Quad 1 key – neutral: NET 1-50; road: NET 1-75.

Virginia is 4-1 right now in Quad 2 games.

A lot of those still on the schedule:

  • at Notre Dame (NET: 78), Jan. 27
  • Syracuse (NET: 75), Feb. 7
  • at Florida State (NET: 134), Feb. 10
  • Wake Forest (NET: 57), March 3
  • Virginia Tech (NET: 58), March 7

Quad 2 key – home: 31-75; neutral: 51-100; road: 76-135.

NCAA Tournament metrics


ncaa tournament
Photo: © Brocreative/stock.adobe.com
  • BartTorvik: 8
  • KPI: 11
  • ELO: 13
  • SOR: 13
  • NET: 14
  • RPI: 14
  • KenPom: 14
  • BPI: 22

Average: 13.6

NCAA Tournament seed projection: 3/4 seed line

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Chris Graham

Chris Graham

Chris Graham is the founder and editor of Augusta Free Press. A 1994 alum of the University of Virginia, Chris is the author and co-author of seven books, including Poverty of Imagination, a memoir published in 2019. For his commentaries on news, sports and politics, go to his YouTube page, TikTok, BlueSky, or subscribe to Substack or his Street Knowledge podcast. Email Chris at [email protected].