Notre Dame, the next opponent for the UVA Basketball team (Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) is the definition of streaky – started 4-0, lost its next five, then won three in a row before losing its next four.
The Irish (8-10, 2-5 ACC) had the midweek bye this week, after losing its last one, at Syracuse, by a 77-69 final last Saturday.
Second-year coach Micah Shrewsberry was 13-20 in Year 1 after taking over for Mike Brey, who only took Notre Dame to one NCAA Tournament in his last five non-COVID seasons, after going to back-to-back Elite Eights in 2015 and 2016.
Shrewsberry has back from his first team 6’0” sophomore point guard Markus Burton (19.8 ppg, 3.6 rebounds/g, 3.3 assists/g, 45.1% FG, 36.7% 3FG), who averaged 16.0 points and 6.0 assists in the two games between UVA and Notre Dame last year.
You’ll also remember Braeden Shrewsberry (14.8 ppg, 43.6% FG, 37.0% 3FG), who is, yes, the head coach’s son, and a 6’4” sophomore.
Tae Davis, a 6’9” junior, has become a bigger weapon for Notre Dame (16.4 ppg, up from 9.2 ppg last year).
Davis’s numbers are up because he’s getting more shots (11.1 FGA/g, vs. 6.7 FGA/g last season), and he’s improved as a finisher (50.3% FG, vs. 48.4% a year ago).
The other top contributor is Princeton transfer Matt Allocco, 6’4” senior (10.2 ppg, 4.4 rebounds/g, 3.0 assists/g, 46.9% FG, 47.1% 3FG).
How they match up
Davis and 6’10” junior Kebba Nije (6.7 ppg, 6.1 rebounds/g, 56.1% FG) give the Irish size in the post.
Shrewsberry will go roughly 10 minutes per game with a four-guard lineup, with 6’7” junior JR Konieczny (4.3 ppg, 42.3% FG, 35.5% 3FG) and 6’6” freshman Sir Mohammed (2.9 ppg, 34.6% FG, 21.4% 3FG) as the stretch fours, with Davis moving over to the five spot.
I can see UVA interim coach Ron Sanchez sticking with his two-bigs lineup against the Notre Dame four-guard set, because of the defensive versatility of 6’8” junior Elijah Saunders (12.3 ppg, 5.4 rebounds/g, 45.9% FG, 40.7% 3FG) and 6’9” freshman Jacob Cofie (7.4 ppg, 5.2 rebounds/g, 49.2% FG, 23.5% 3FG).
My concern would be, who guards Burton.
This is where Dai Dai Ames (5.9 ppg, 1.8 assists/g, 38.4% FG, 37.5% 3FG) can be important.
Ames, at 6’1”, might be the best option for Sanchez to try to keep Burton somewhat in check.
Forecast
- KenPom: Notre Dame 65-64
- BartTorvik: Virginia 62-61
- EvanMiya: Notre Dame 66-64
- Haslametrics: Notre Dame 63-62
- ESPN BPI: Notre Dame +0.5
Video: UVA set to face Notre Dame
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Chris Graham
