Wake Forest beat SMU by one, lost in OT to Georgia Tech by one – and then got the doors blown off in a 42-7 loss to a Florida State team that had lost four straight coming in.
Will the real Slim Shady please stand up, right?
Cut me some slack on the oldster rap reference – I’m a Gen X’er.
I’m trying to make sense of the blowout loss at FSU – sure I’m not alone there – and I’m not seeing anything obvious, you know, in terms of key guys being out.
Wake Forest at #14 Virginia | Saturday, 7 p.m. | ESPN
Series: Virginia leads series, 35-17-0
Last meeting: Virginia, 31-30 (2024)
Line: Virginia -6.5
Over/under: 49.5
Projected final score: Virginia 28, Wake Forest 21
It was just brutal football on their part – at the end of the day, only two turnovers, but they fumbled the ball six times, and the offense only put up 247 yards.
FSU had a modest 421 yards, but was able to convert the two turnovers – and a third, in effect, turnover, on downs, when Wake coach Jake Dickert, down 21-0, went for a fourth-and-5 in minus territory – into three short-field TDs in the second half.
The game, appears to me, just got away from them, so, I wouldn’t dismiss Wake Forest just on the basis of the final score of one game.
Getting to know the Deacs
Because of the way the FSU game played out, I’m going to throw out the playbook that I use for these columns, in which I usually focus on an opponent’s most recent performance.
Starting with the offense, reading into what Dickert said at his weekly presser on Tuesday, it seems he will be sticking with Robby Ashford (1,298 yards, 58.5 percent completion rate, three TDs/five INTs) at QB, despite subbing in Deshawn Purdie (578 yards, 53.5 percent completion rate, six TDs/two INTs) late in last week’s game.
“If you peel back the tape, one of the reasons we went with Robby is because he can extend the play and we felt like we would need to do that against their (FSU’s) defensive line,” Dickert said. “We’ll evaluate the quarterback position week to week, and sometimes series to series. Those guys know that. I think they handled it really well. I thought it was time at that moment to go to Deshawn, and I thought he came in and did some good things.”
Purdie started the SMU game, a 13-12 win on Oct. 25, and was 14-of-26 for 183 yards and two INTs.
Ashford has put up good numbers in three starts:
- 21-of-35 for 252 yards and two INTs in the 34-24 loss to NC State on Sept. 11.
- 13-of-28 for 219 yards through the air, with an additional 82 yards on the ground, in the 30-29 OT loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 27.
- 24-for-39 for 256 yards, a TD and INT in the 30-23 win at Virginia Tech on Oct. 4.
Either way you go, the QB has performed well in big games this season.
The ground game works better with Ashford (318 sack-adjusted rushing yards, four rushing TDs) behind center, because then you have to account for him and for lead tailback Demond Claiborne (639 yards, 6.0 yards/attempt, eight TDs).
Ashford has 185 yards on the ground on designed runs, so, gotta watch for him in the read-option, on keepers.
The key targets in the passing game are:
- Slot receiver Chris Barnes: 33 catches/44 targets, 497 yards, 15.1 yards/catch. Particularly need to watch for after he catches the ball – his average catch is 5.94 yards beyond the line of scrimmage; he has 294 yards after catch, 8.91 yards per catch.
- Wideout Micah Mays: 17 catches/38 targets, 295 yards, 17.4 yards/catch.
- Wideout Sterling Berkhalter: 19 catches/32 targets, 296 yards, 15.6 yards/catch.
- Slot receiver Carlos Hernandez: 16 catches/34 targets, 144 yards, 9.0 yards/catch.
- Tight end Eni Falayi: 15 catches/19 targets, 208 yards, 13.9 yards/catch.
The defense is pretty good, sixth in the ACC in total defense (325.1 yards/game), fifth in scoring defense (21.8 points/game) and second in pass defense (191.3 yards/game, 108.2 opponent pass efficiency).
Names to pay attention to:
- Safety Nick Anderson: 87.8 PFF grade, 63 tackles, 14 catches/17 targets, three PBUs, 118.4 NFL passer rating against.
- Edge rusher Nuer Gatkouth: 79.3 PFF grade, 26 QB pressures/three sacks, 12 run-game tackles.
- Edge rusher Langston Hardy: 76.0 PFF grade, 20 QB pressures/five sacks, 32 run-game tackles.
- Cornerback Karon Prunty:5 PFF grade, 24 tackles, 13 catches/31 targets, four PBUs, one INT, 69.4 NFL passer rating against.
On special teams:
- Punter Cal Joseph, not that good – 38.1 yards per attempt.
- Placekicker Connor Calvert: big leg – 11-of-15 on field-goal tries, with one make in three attempts from 50+
Support AFP
Share
Chris Graham
