If you’re a college football fan, Virginia vs. NC State was a great game to watch. If you’re a UVA Football fan, it did not have a Cinderella ending.
Let’s dive into the recaps, stats, and notes.
Operations Breakdowns
Offense Game Recap & Game Grade: 88.95 (B+)
There was a lot to like about the UVA offense on Saturday, but a late game collapse kept this contest out of the win column. Some of the good things were the offense putting up 514 yards, 257 rushing and 257 passing. For a second consecutive week, Virginia did not surrender a sack, they were over 50 percent on third down conversions for a second week, and scored 31or more points against back-to-back D1 opponents for the first time since October of 2021, when they recorded 48 points against both Duke and Georgia Tech in consecutive weeks.
I’m not certain what happened on the last three drives of the game, but all of them, except for the missed field goal drive, had the ‘Hoos in a position to score the game winning TD. I was fine with going for it on fourth down at the NCS 8-yard line, but I hated the play. Why, if you’re trying to go one yard forward, is a play called that sets the running back a yard-and-one-half further away from the line to gain? As for the final drive, quarterback Chandler Morris was 5-for-7 passing for 69 yards. Again, Monday morning quarterbacking, but with 1:07 to go in the game, all three timeouts in the pocket, on the NC State 12 yard-line, why not run the ball once? Maybe you get stuffed, maybe you get six yards, or 12 yards and win the game. You have plenty of time, and the Pack defense had been chasing UVA receivers for the last 60 seconds. Maybe they were a little tired?
From a total game perspective, the grades reflect an above-average performance. The operation was led by the running backs sporting a championship level 93.85. The offensive line also received a championship level grade with a 91.39. The quarterback unit had a solid 85.2, and the pass catchers dropped from Week 1’s championship level 91.19 to 84.59.
Defense Game Recap & Game Grade: 69.91 (D+)
Wow, what a difference a week makes. We were getting ready to suit the UVA defense up in Avengers gear and send them out to save the world. Yes, the defense had a difficult afternoon in Raleigh. There are issues that need to be cleaned up, and we’ll review those in the grades segment. With that having been said, the offense put the defense in a couple precarious situations, and the Wolfpack has an experienced offensive line.
The defense was repeatedly hammered on the ground and couldn’t contain State quarterback C.J. Bailey or running back Hollywood Smothers. The pair combined for 85 percent of the Pack’s 216 rushing yards.
The defensive line posted the top grade with a 73.81, far below last week’s triple championship grade marks among all three units. I expected some of the early big run plays would get cleaned up and that adjustments would be coming throughout the game. There were critical errors and mistakes that cost yardage and clock. But the coaching staff should have a fairly certain benchmark of where the defense is on Sept. 8 and correct the issues. Most of the issues are correctable.
Both the linebackers and the secondary had disappointing afternoons, with the backers barely missing a C- grade with a 69.7, and the defensive backs coming in last with a 66.23 mark.
Special Teams Recap & Game Grade: 84.97 (B)
Last week the special teams’ grade was 86.85, and we had three operations (KO Return, Kicking and Punt Cover) obtain championship level grades (90+). This week we have a lone championship level contributor, and that is the punt return operation with a 95.53. Punt coverage, kicking, and kickoff return dropped, while kickoff coverage realized a 0.9 percent gain in its grade.
Punt return tops the leaderboard this week with its 95.53, followed in second by the punt coverage operation, which dropped 13 points from the previous week. Trailing punt return and punt coverage in order were kicking, kickoff coverage and kick return.
Despite the drops, when you take a look at the special teams’ Notes and Stats, you will see the Cavalier special teams are measuring up well against other Division 1 programs to start off the season.
North Carolina State Grades & Notes
Offense – Grades: 88.95 (B+)
- Quarterback: 85.2 (B)
- Running backs 93.85 (A)
- Wide receivers & tight ends: 84.59 (B)
- Offensive line: 91.39 (A-)
Offense – Quick Takes & Notes
Highlights: Clearly J’Mari Taylor is the real deal. He’s got speed, power, vision, and a drive to win and to succeed. That’s a lethal quartet on the gridiron, and I’m thrilled that Taylor is on my team.
Not so bright: Turnovers are crushing at any time, but when you have three more plays, 1:03 on the clock and the option is an incomplete pass or a potential interception, there’s no need to force the issue.
Notes & Stats
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UVA Football tight end Sage Ennis. Photo: UVA Athletics In their home opener against East Carolina, the Wolfpack held its 54th opponent to less than 100 yards rushing under head coach Dave Doeren. The Cavaliers surpassed not only the 100 yards rushing mark against NC State, but they also surpassed the 200-yard plateau.
- The last time a Virginia team had over 250 yards passing and 250 yards rushing in a game was against Boston College during the 2020 COVID season, with 262 rushing yards and 287 passing.
- It’s been almost four years since UVA has back-to-back rushing games of 150 yards or more. The last time that occurred was on 10/23/21 and 10/30/21 against Georgia Tech (240 yards) and BYU (216 yards). The third consecutive week might happen against William & Mary next Saturday.
- The ‘Hoos posted a 68.4 percent third-down conversion rate against the Pack. Virginia’s last mark above 60 percent was in October of 2021against Georgia Tech, when it recorded a 63.64 percent.
- The Virginia offensive line kept UVA QB Chandler Morris upright for a second consecutive game by not allowing a sack. You have to go back to 2014 to find the last time Virginia did not allow a sack in back-to-back games. The opponents were BYU (4) and Kent State (5). In addition to the back-to-back, no-sack games, the ‘Hoos did not surrender a sack that year to UCLA (1), Duke (7), or Miami (11). **Game# in parentheses.
- As I mentioned last week, one of the metrics I use in grading is Points Per Possession Inside the Plus 40-yard line. This is based on the Five Factors that were designed by Bill Connelly of SBNation 12 years ago. Connelly’s analysis showed that when winning the “finishing drives battle,” teams won 74.65 percent of the time. In last Monday’s report, I noted that UVA scored 41 points in nine possessions inside the Coastal Carolina 40-yard line. That averages to 4.55 points per possession, and in the formula below it equates to a 62.6 percent winning percentage. This weekend, UVA scored 24 points out of seven possessions inside the NC State plus 40-yard line for a 3.428 average, equating to a 38.5 percent chance of winning.
Pts Per Trip Winning %
5.5 to 7 points 72.8%
5 to 5.5 points 68.4%
4.5 to 5 points 62.6%
4 to 4.5 points 51.8%
3.5 to 4 points 50.4%
3 to 3.5 points 38.5%
2 to 3 points 23.1%
1 to 2 points 4.9%
0 to 1 points 0.0%
Defense – Grades: 69.91 (D+)
- Defensive line: 73.81 (C)
- Linebackers: 69.7 (D+)
- Secondary: 66.235 (D)
Defense – Quick Takes & Notes
Highlights: Clearly the effort with respect to third-down defense should be recognized as a highlight.
Not so bright: After praising the speed and tackling of the Cavaliers defense last week, regrettably, assignments, run fits, tackling mastery, route recognition, offensive concepts, change of direction and angle alignment needs improvement.
Notes & Stats
- John Rudzinski’s defense has limited two consecutive teams to under 15 percent in third-down conversion rate. Both Coastal Carolina and the Wolfpack converted just one third down each, 2-of-21combined for a 9.52 percent rating. That is the lowest total in the NCAA.
- The ‘Hoos lost their first turnover of the season on their final offensive play of the game against State. They are currently ranked 27th in the nation with a turnover margin of one. The last year the ‘Hoos ranked below 71 in TO margin was 2018 when they were ranked 54th in lowest TO margin.
- Against East Carolina, NCSU wide receiver Wesley Grimes posted his highest single-game totals of his career in the season opener with four catches for 121 yards and a touchdown. Freshman Teddy Hoffman had a record day as well with five receptions for 93 yards, the most receiving yards for a true freshman in his first game for the Wolfpack dating back to at least 1995. UVA’s pass defense limited Grimes to two receptions for 33 yards and zero scores and Hoffman to one catch for six yards.
- In 2024 the ‘Hoos had a total of 37 pass breakups (PBU) and 40 QB pressures respectively in 12 games. In just two games of the 2025 campaign, Virginia’s pass defense has 12 PBU and nine QB pressures. In 16 percent of the season, the defense is already on pace to surpass the 37 PBU in seven contests and exceed the 40 QB pressures in eight or nine outings. Note: I actually have UVA charted with 15 PBU and 13 QB hurries.
- UVA’s defense is currently holding opponents to 2.0 red zone scores per game (FG or TD) which ranks 5th nationally. Last year that number almost doubled to 3.9 per game. In 2024 opponents average 4.5 red zone scoring attempts but that number has dropped to 2.5 this season, ranking the defense sixth. Finally, the percentage of opponents scoring in the red zone (including TD and FG) is at 80 percent (10th in the NCAA), but that is down 7.76 percent from 2024.
Special Teams – Grades: 84.97 (B)
- Kickoff return: 79.58 (A)
- Kickoff coverage: 82.35 (B-)
- Place kicking: 83.08 (B)
- Punt return: 95.53 (A)
- Punt coverage: 84.325 (B)
Special Teams – Quick Takes & Notes
Highlights: Again, the great work of the punt return operation set UVA up for another touchdown scoring possession just before half to give the Cavaliers a 24-14 lead. I cannot recall a time when UVA Football had back-to-back weeks of a field position changing punt or kickoff return. I like them.
Not so bright: Early on we’re seeing a lot of Week 1 to Week 2 variation in the special teams’ grades. The kickoff coverage grade has been steady thus far, but the other four operations have had wide inconsistency. Hopefully, this will settle down over the next couple of weeks.
Notes & Stats
- The placekicking operation needs some clarity and stability. The staff needs to know what the maximum distance Will Bettridge can hit. I’m assuming they do, but I haven’t seen them use that data to make thoughtful decisions with respect to attempting a potentially out-of-range kick or going for it on fourth down. When you miss an end-of-range attempt, you essentially place the opponent within 10 yards or less of midfield. I’d rather see a fourth-down offensive play and maybe get a few extra yards away from plus territory or actually convert the first down.
- Virginia’s special teams, for the first time in a while, I can recall having several operations in the top 50 of Division 1. Kickoff return is ranked second in returns, the kickoff coverage operation is ranked ninth, punt coverage is setting at No. 23, punt return is at No. 31, and opponents punting is sitting at 42.
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