Ponder this for a moment: the ACC champion doesn’t get into the College Football Playoff.
Note: I did not say the ACC would not have a seat at the CFP table; I just said the ACC champion might not.
How is that possible?
Let me set the table.
Duke (7-5) is set to face Virginia (10-2) in Saturday’s ACC Championship Game, and because they already have five losses, a Blue Devil win in Charlotte could result in the ACC champion missing the playoff.
Stay with me: the CFP assigns bids to the five highest-ranked conference champions, so if Duke beats Virginia and is ranked lower than champions from the Big 12, Big 10, SEC and two Group of Five leagues, the ACC champs would not be selected.
If Virginia wins, the ACC will be fine, as the Cavaliers at 11-2 would a cinch for an automatic bid.
Who’s to blame for this mess?
There’s plenty to go around, but you have to start with SMU, which was upset by Cal late Saturday night on the West Coast.
All SMU had to do was win a game against a team that had just fired its coach, following an embarrassing loss to rival Stanford.
They failed, and Duke, with five losses, three in nonconference play – to Illinois, Tulane and UConn – was thrust into the ACC title game, which won a five-team tiebreaker Miami (10-2), Georgia Tech (9-3) and Pitt and SMU (both 8-4).
You have to place some of this on the ACC for not having a tiebreaker that can’t be tossed out the window in case of a five-loss team emerging.
Duke will now be playing for an ACC title-and nothing else.
Miami could still save the ACC from being left out in the cold by receiving an at-large bid, but that’s a BIG if, and a scenario the ACC is hoping they don’t have to see happen.
A Virginia win, and all is well.
While the ACC likely has only one team in the CFP, it won’t suffer the fate of being excluded from the playoff for the fourth time in the past five years.
And this time, it will be with a 12-team field.
JMU will be Duke fans on Saturday
JMU, 11-1, at is set to play in the Sun Belt Championship Game on Friday at home against Troy (8-4).
The Dukes, with a win over Troy, have a path to the playoffs, though right now, they would have to leapfrog Tulane (10-2), which was the lone Group of 5 team in last week’s CFP Top 25.
All of this becomes irrelevant if UVA defeats Duke at Bank of America Stadium Saturday evening.
The tragedy here is Miami.
The Hurricanes had two hiccups in the middle of the season – losses to SMU and Louisville, both of which finished 8-4 – but they have now won four straight and are at 10-2, and yet are clearly on the outside looking in.
Miami began the season as a favorite to land in the ACC Championship Game, and ended the season deserving the same.
Could you remove the nonsensical ACC tiebreaker formula for this?
You can bet there will be some sweaty palms Saturday night in the ACC headquarters.
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