AAA: Expect bigger increases in gas prices in May

Gas prices in April saw minimal variability compared to March, which increased 15 cents from start to finish. Stable crude oil prices amid fluctuating demand helped keep the national average price jumps nominal last month.

“While April saw minimal fluctuation, May is likely to see much larger increases alongside demand spikes, especially closer to Memorial Day weekend,” AAA spokesperson Morgan Dean said. “Compared to May 2019, U.S. gasoline demand is down only 4 percent and gas prices are on average just two cents more.”

On the week, the national average increased two cents. Ten states saw averages increase between five and eight cents, but the majority of states saw increases of one to three cents. Virginia’s average ($2.73) is up three cents on the week, two cents on the month and $1.06 over last year. The pump price changes come amid a flux in supply and demand. For the week ending April 23, the Energy Information Administration reported gasoline stocks saw a small 100,000 bbl build to reach the 135 million bbl mark. That is the highest supply rate since the end of February and an 8.3 million bbl surplus compared to the same time two years ago. While supply increased, demand saw a decrease of 3% to 8.87 million b/d.

Last week, media reports surfaced that a shortage of fuel tank truck drivers may impact gasoline availability this summer. As gasoline demand increases, gas stations are working to adjust delivery schedules to keep pace. However, deliveries may be delayed in a small number of markets this summer causing select stations to see low to no fuel at some pumps for short periods, one or two days.

“With road trips expected to be popular this summer, some summer travel destinations, like beaches or mountains, may see some pumps affected. It is important to understand this is not a market-wide impact. Gas can be found at other stations within a market,” said Dean. “The U.S. is not looking at a gas supply shortage; there is ample gasoline supply across the country. It is just a matter of more frequent deliveries to stations to meet demand.”

In markets where this happened last month, it was contained within a brand/chain at a select number of pumps. As a rule of thumb in general, AAA recommends that drivers consider filling up when their fuel level hits a quarter of a tank.