North Carolina started 13-1, with wins over Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio State; the Heels have lost three of their last four, giving up at least 80 points in each of the four.
What’s going on here?
It’s not an injury taking away a key guy; the starting lineup in Saturday’s 84-78 loss at Cal had four of the five guys who started the season opener, the difference being Derek Dixon starting at the off-guard spot in place of Kyan Evans, who got 13 minutes off the bench.
Evans has been trending downward in terms of minutes since Dec. 1; he averaged 27.2 minutes per game in November, but since going for four points on 1-of-7 shooting in 33 minutes in a 74-58 loss to Michigan State on Nov. 27, he’s averaging 21.0 minutes per, and he’s at 18.5 minutes per since Jan. 1.
Evans averaged 10.6 points per game as a sophomore at Colorado State a year ago, on 47.1 percent shooting from the floor and 44.6 percent from three; he’s putting in 5.6 points per game this season, on 34.3 percent shooting from the floor and 30.7 percent from three.
Evans was one of the big pickups in a $14 million portal spending spree in the 2025 offseason that included Luka Bogavec, a 6’6” Euro import who has also seen his minutes cut because of lack of productivity (9.6 ppg, 39.6% FG, 31.3% 3FG).
Freshman Caleb Wilson, a 6’10” forward, is producing – 19.7 points per game, 10.6 rebounds per game, 57.7 percent shooting, and North Carolina is getting consistent numbers from seven-foot Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar (17.2 ppg, 9.1 rebounds/g, 64.3% FG, 49.0% 3FG) and 6’5” senior Seth Trimble (15.0 ppg, 45.5% FG, 30.0% 3FG).
The issue is at point guard, where Dixon (5.2 ppg, 37.3% FG, 39.6% 3FG), a 6’5” freshman, got the start in place of Evans in the loss at Cal, and went for 14 points (5-of-11 FG, 4-of-8 3FG) and three assists in 29 minutes, and the other forward spot.
Jarin Stevenson, a former UVA recruiting target, started the Cal game, but only got 11 minutes, not because of foul trouble, but rather, ineffectiveness (0 points, 0-of-1 FG, one rebound, one blocked shot).
Bogavac wasn’t much of a help – seven points and five boards in 20 minutes off the bench.
Jonathan Powell, a 6’6” sophomore who averages 16.5 minutes per game off the bench, contributed three points and three rebounds in 11 minutes.
Things got so bad for coach Hubert Davis that he tried 6’10” sophomore Zayden High, who averages 5.9 minutes per game, for eight minutes; High hadn’t gotten more than four minutes in a game since the Nov. 27 loss to Michigan State.
It worked, to the degree that it needed to: High had six points and a rebound in his limited action on Saturday.
Analytics & anecdotals
In this recent rough patch, North Carolina has allowed opponents to score a ghastly 1.291 points per possession, per CBB Analytics, the second-highest total in all of D1.
Anecdotally, that includes the 95 surrendered to Stanford in the loss on Wednesday; Stanford had scored 55 in its previous game, a loss at Virginia, and the Cardinal could only muster 50 in its loss to Duke last night.
SMU dropped 97 on Carolina in its win in Dallas on Jan. 3; since that one, the Mustangs have averaged 72.5 points per game in a 1-3 stretch, the win coming on a buzzer-beating halfcourt shot that sank Virginia Tech on Wednesday.
The issue: from scanning the CBB Analytics numbers, it’s three-point shooting defense.
Over the past four, UNC opponents are shooting 50.0 percent from three, the highest opponent rate in the country in that span, on 29.0 attempts per game – translation: 14.5 made threes per game, adding up to 43.5 points from threes per game.
Holy bejeezus, right?
For context there: Virginia, over its last four games, has held opponents to 24.0 percent shooting from three, the lowest opponent rate in the country in that span, on 24.0 attempts per game.
Translation: 5.8 made threes per game, adding up to 17.4 points from threes per game.
SMU, which had five made threes in its loss to Virginia yesterday, went 14-of-27 in its 97-83 win over UNC on Jan. 3.
Stanford was 5-of-26 in its 70-55 loss at Virginia on Jan. 10; the Cardinal was 16-of-28 in its 95-90 win over Carolina on Jan. 14.
Cal was 3-of-19 in its 84-60 loss at UVA on Jan. 7; the Bears were 14-of-26 in the win over the Heels last night.
Odd thing here: it’s not a season-long problem.
To wit:
- Kansas (87-74 W, Nov. 7): 12-of-25 3FG
- Michigan State (74-58 L, Nov. 27): 5-of-10 3FG
- Kentucky (67-64 W, Dec. 2): 1-of-13 3FG
- Georgetown (83-63 W, Dec. 7): 4-of-23 3FG
- Ohio State (71-70 W, Dec. 20): 4-of-20 3FG
Those were the Heels’ Top 100 KenPom opponents in November and December.
The five combined to shoot 26-of-91 (28.6%) from three, getting an average of 15.6 points from three per game.
In UNC’s last four, the shooting efficiency from three has almost doubled, and the points from threes have nearly tripled.
Is it just extended dumb bad luck, or have opponents figured something out – that Davis and his staff themselves need to figure out?