White House ’08: Dueling bounces

Analysis by Chris Graham
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Barack Obama got a six- to eight-point bounce out of the Democratic National Convention. John McCain appears to have gotten at least a similarly-sized bounce out of the Republican National Convention that followed a week later. Advantage: McCain, who has seized the momentum heading into the fall campaign proper.

Gallup had the lead at five points, 49 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, a week after registering support for Obama at 50 percent and McCain at 42 percent. Rasmussen Reports had the lead for McCain at 47 percent-to-46 percent as of this morning. A week ago, Obama had a 51 percent-to-45 percent lead over McCain.

Zogby Interactive had the McCain lead at 49.7 percent-to-45.9 percent this morning. Last week, the same poll had McCain ahead 47.1 percent-to-44.6 percent.

All three polling organizations had the race essentially tied heading into the convention season.

Trends

– The Enthusiasm Gap: The McCain ticket has narrowed things considerably here, according to Rasmussen. Seventy-seven percent of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate, while 17 percent are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Noteworthy: Before the RNC, 54 percent of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.

– Favorable/Unfavorable: Thirty-seven percent of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, while 27 percent have a Very Unfavorable view, according to Rasmussen. For McCain, those numbers are now 29 percent Very Favorable and 20 percent Very Unfavorable.

– Polarizing Palin: Thirty-six percent of voters said McCain’s selection of Palin was “excellent,” but 24 percent of voters rated McCain’s selection of Palin as “poor,” according to Gallup. Also from Gallup: 44 percent of voters say they think Palin is unqualified to be president.

– The RealClearPolitics.com breakdown of the Electoral College map has Obama ahead in states with 273 electoral votes, and McCain ahead in states with 265 electoral votes.