When will the tourism business recover from the coronavirus?
How long will the coronavirus epidemic last in the world? This question is now asked by everyone, including the tourism business and their clients – tourists. The question of planning your future is the most important for people, so I tried to find forecasts on the terms of Coronavirus epidemic, which are given by experts or governments, and summarize them in this material.
Zhang Wenhong, a famous Chinese virologist and head of the Shanghai Covid-19 expert group, said he estimated that it may take two years for European countries to cope with the coronavirus pandemic. “It would be no surprise if the virus disappears and then reappears,” he explained the long term forecast.
How much damage will the coronavirus cause to the world economy?
The International Finance Institute (IIF) has warned today of the deepest abyss the world is flying into. According to his report, the forecast of global GDP due to coronavirus has been reduced from plus 0.4% to minus 1.5%. For comparison – in 2009, the global recession was 2.1%. In the U.S. recession in 2020 may reach -2.8%, according to IIF, in the euro zone crisis will reach -4.7%. And the most vulnerable experts of the Institute believe Argentina and South Africa. In Russia, analysts IIF forecast a decline this year by 1.3%, and in China – growth of no more than +2.8% (instead of the previous +7%).
It is believed that today the systemic risk to the global economy has become much more serious than it was during the crises in 1979, 1987 or 2008. One of the main reasons is the extremely increased risk of a 1.5 quadrillion derivatives market crash!
What kind of damage will the coronavirus epidemic cause to tourism?
The first sector affected by the coronavirus spreading all over the world was the travel industry and related industries – air travel, excursions, restaurants and other entertainment for tourists. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) estimated in its recent open letter to the world’s governments that up to 50 million jobs in these sectors could be at risk due to the pandemic, and the number of trips around the world could decline by 25 percent this year. However, up to 14 percent of the 320 million people in the travel industry could lose their jobs.
What are the forecasts for tourism recovery? And what will it be like after the pandemic?
According to a Forbes study a week ago, more than half of Americans (58%) plan to travel between May and September 2021. But they are already very cautious about their plans: a quarter of respondents will try to avoid large cities, long distance travel and public transportation. According to a study by Luggage Hero, demand for travel after the epidemic will be higher than before the coronavirus. But at first, the demand will have a different structure than we are used to, thanks to the caution of tourists:
Tourists will prefer local travel, fishing and hunting outside the cities. SIBEREON claims that a huge demand is expected in outdoor activities equipment. International tourism will be temporarily unpopular, because people for the sake of safety will prefer not to go far from home.
Tourists will prefer short trips to save money against the background of the general economic downturn: the traditional two-week summer vacation will be reborn into weekend tours.
At the same time, all experts agree that tourism is a highly elastic industry, which quickly recovers from various excesses. An example of this is quite a fast recovery of tourism after the terrorist attack on New York on September 11, 2001 (9/11).
Most likely, as soon as the pandemic comes to an end, surviving tour operators will start aggressive advertising to capture market shares left over from bankrupt companies. Countries that will try to redistribute the global tourist flow from the countries hardest hit by the pandemic will do the same.