The knock on Duke one-and-done Paolo Banchero, who started the season as a potential #1 draft pick, and is now trending down toward the middle of the lottery, is that he “lacks elite upside,” suggesting that what you can already see with him is what you’ll get.
After seeing him last night in Duke’s 69-68 loss to Virginia, I’m seeing another Marvin Williams, a first-generation one-and-done at North Carolina, who ended up being taken with the #2 pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, and never came close to playing up to his draft slot, averaging a decidedly average 10.2 points per game over a just fine, but nowhere near #2 draft pick-level great, 15-year NBA career.
Williams, when you look back on it, floated through his lone season in Chapel Hill, so it should have been no surprise that he floated through all those years in the NBA.
The 6’10” Banchero, frustratingly, for Duke fans and NBA scouts, floated through 38 minutes of floor time last night, allowing himself to be thoroughly outplayed by 6’6” Virginia forward Jayden Gardner, who, god love him, is not a future lottery pick, probably not a future NBA player.
But in the win at Duke, Gardner made Banchero look like, well, you might remember Vernon Carey, a former Duke OAD now shuttling back and forth between the NBA and G-League.
Or maybe Marvin Bagley III, a former #2 pick who’s currently having trouble staying on the floor in Sacramento.
Or Jahlil Okafor, a 2015 Dookie who went third in the NBA Draft, and at the ripe old age of 26 is out of basketball not due to injury, just due to him not being all that good at basketballing.
And the Duke basketbloggers brag about these guys. I’d maybe keep the track record of top bigs who matriculated for a few months there, obviously didn’t get better while there, and then flamed out in the NBA to myself, but that’s just me.
Banchero is doing them one better, appearing at the moment like he isn’t waiting to flame out (or eat himself out) of the NBA, in favor of just going ahead and taking care of that business now.
I concede that I’m probably rushing to judgment here, but damn, the guy was an absolute non-factor last night.
His final statline – nine points, nine rebounds, 3-of-9 shooting – suggests a basic off-night, but then you look at his second half – 20 minutes, one shot attempt, zero points, two assists, two rebounds, three turnovers – and it stands out.
To add context to his second half: Virginia sophomore walk-on Malachi Poindexter, who averaged 13 points a game as a prep senior, had one less shot attempt, the same number of rebounds and two less turnovers in the second half as our guy Banchero did, and not even diehard UVA fans who watched the game and the ESPNU replay could swear to you on a Bible that they remember that Malachi Poindexter even played last night.
Banchero wanted nothing to do with Gardner, who as the game went on didn’t even need help from coach Tony Bennett’s post-to-post doubles to keep Banchero in check.
His coach, Mike Krzyzewski, has to hope that last night was a wake-up call for his young star.
“Paolo is touching the ball. He needs to take more shots, and he needs to take his jump shot,” Krzyzewski said. “With him, when he does get the ball, there are a lot of double teams, so then, you have to pass off of it, and we have to hit shots, and if we hit shots, they don’t double team. It’s a part of making those adjustments.”
The two teams play again in two weeks, so Gardner, postgame, was diplomatic, making sure not to provide anything for the bulletin board, saying Banchero is “a great player,” thanking his teammates for helping in the post and on the perimeter.
“And then sometimes I was just left one-on-one. I just had to hold my own out there, and I think that’s what we did,” said Gardner, whose statline had him with a game-high 17 points and eight rebounds in 35 minutes of floor time.
His coach, echoing Gardner’s smart diplomacy, had guarded praise for his effort – and results.
“Jayden, you know, he spread out, and again, made him work for his looks, whether it was drives, shots, or all that stuff, and again, [Banchero’s] so talented, you can see that, but again, the game doesn’t change. You make them shoot contested shots, and you work to get good shots and win the majority of those battles, and you can be successful,” Bennett said.
Banchero maybe could have learned a lot in a year with Bennett as his coach, but, oh, well.
Story by Chris Graham
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