Purdue can beat you in a defensive slog: proving that in its 61-48 NCAA Tournament first-round win over ODU. The Boilermakers can also outscore you, as they proved last night in their 99-94 overtime win over Tennessee.
Pretty versatile, this bunch.
The Big Ten regular-season co-champs average 66.0 possessions per game, 263rd nationally, according to KenPom.com, so, yes, faster than Virginia (59.4, 353rd, and dead last), but, what’s new there.
They’re big: KenPom has Purdue 24th nationally in average height on the floor, at 78.2”.
(Virginia is an inch shorter, 77.2″, ranking 108th.)
And it’s an effective big: the Boilermakers pull down 33.5 percent of their misses, 17th nationally, per TeamRankings.com.
(Virginia rebounds 77.3 percent of opponents’ misses, 33rd nationally.)
They’re slightly better on offense (121.9 points/100 possessions, fourth nationally in KenPom) than on D (95.1 points/100 possessions, 28th).
(The vitals on Virginia: 122.4 points/100 possessions, third nationally, on offense; 88.1 points/100 possessions on defense, also third nationally.)
Breaking down the Purdue impact players
Two guys do most of the damage on the offensive end:
Carsen Edwards, a 6’1” junior, ranks third nationally in the KenPom Player of the Year numbers, averaging 23.8 points per game. Edwards is a high-volume shooter, hoisting up 19.4 shots per game, shooting 38.7 percent from the floor, 43.4 percent on two-point shots, and 34.6 percent on threes, and he puts up a staggering 10.3 three-point shots a game.
Edwards does get into the lane with regularity: averaging 6.2 free-throw attempts a game, though the percentage of his shots at the rim is toward the mean, at 27.9 percent, according to Hoop-Math.com.
The other guy to keep a close eye on is Ryan Cline, a 6’6” senior, who went bonkers in the second half last night, connecting on 6-of-7 from three en route to scoring 22 in the win.
For the season, Cline is averaging 12.1 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting from the floor, 45.2 percent on twos and 41.8 percent on threes, and, that’s what he shoots, threes: 7.5 attempts per game, 75.6 percent of his shots overall.
So, you have two guys averaging 17.8 three attempts a game. On the season, 45.1 percent of Purdue’s attempts are threes, according to Hoop-Math, a little high (38.9 percent of Virginia’s shots are threes).
Matt Haarms, a 7’3” sophomore, is the anchor in the post, scoring 9.5 points and 5.5 rebounds in 22.4 minutes per game, shooting 80.6 percent on shots at the rim and 68.2 percent overall on two-point shots.
Haarms also blocks two shots per game, with 41 of his blocks this season at the rim.
Purdue will go eight or even nine-deep: including two 6’9” guys, three 6’6” guys and a pair of 6’3” and 6’4’ guys.
Augusta Free Press coverage of the 2019 postseason is presented by Bear Creek. Serving Waynesboro, Charlottesville, Harrisonburg and surrounding communities, Bear Creek provides a hassle-free process to help homeowners create outdoor living spaces that bring people together. Schedule a consultation at BearCreek.co.
How Virginia matches up
Virginia should be able to get into the lane on the Purdue guards, but the question then is what happens when you run into Haarms.
Haarms’ size may result in UVA coach Tony Bennett going with Jack Salt at the five at the outset, and you may also see more of 7’1” Jay Huff as a counter, both with his size and length on defense, and his ability to draw Haarms away from the rim on the offensive end, to clear the lane.
Salt, Huff and Mamadi Diakite will all need to finish strong on dives and pocket passes off screen-and-rolls.
Look for Bennett to go at the tip with 5’9” freshman point guard Kihei Clark on Edwards, with De’Andre Hunter and sixth man Braxton Key taking their turns, when they’re not trying to keep Cline from going off.
How it plays out
KenPom.com: Virginia 67, Purdue 63 (Virginia 66% win probability)
ESPN BPI: Virginia +4.5 (Virginia 75.4% win probability)
Preview by Chris Graham
Share
Contributors
