US sportsbooks, polls disagree over who will be the Democratic nominee

2020 election
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The polls and the sportsbooks appear to agree on just one thing as we enter the last month of 2019: Joe Biden is the favorite. The septuagenarian remains the front-runner, polling at 27% and odds of +275. He saw his odds shorten briefly last week to +250 but has since benefited from Elizabeth Warren dropping in the polls.

It’s Pete Buttigieg who has exposed the most surprising disparity between the polls and the bookmakers. The polyglot from South Bend, Indiana has seen his odds shorten from +700 to +325 in a month. This stands in shark contrast to the polls who have him in fourth place, with an 8% national polling average. Buttigieg has surged in the primary caucus, overtaking Elizabeth Warren in the Iowa polls.

Elizabeth Warren has taken the biggest tumble after her ‘medicare for all’ plan has been called into question. She remains second behind Biden in the Polls, but the betting sites have slashed her odds from +110 last month to +350. Warren’s loss has been Biden’s gain, who will be happy to see his competitors share the votes amongst them.

Bernie Sanders is third in the polls, but bookmakers have him trailing Biden, Buttigieg and Warren, with exponential lengthening of odds since last month. Sanders will now be looking over his shoulder as Michael Bloomberg is gaining significant ground, with the bookmakers offering +900 on the ex-New York mayor.

Kamala Harris continues to lose ground. The polls still have her in fifth place, behind Buttigieg and above Andrew Yang. The betting sites, have her in tenth place behind Amy Klobuchar and Tulsi Gabbard.

According to the major US sportsbooks which also offer political betting, Joe Biden remains their firm favorite. Interesting outsiders, which might offer good value for money may be Bloomberg (+900) and Michelle Obama (+6000). Obama has not yet endorsed his ex-vice president Joe Biden, fuelling speculation that he may be saving it for this wife.

It has not been the most exciting democratic race in recent years which can, in part, be down to the impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The current president is the bookmaker’s favorite to win the US presidential election in 2020 with odds of +130. Mike Pence is the next republican on the list, followed by Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo.

Contradicting the odds on a Trump victory, the democrats are the bookmakers favorite to be the winning party in the US presidential elections in 2020. The betting sites also expect the current president to survive his current impeachment inquiry.

On a light note, betting specials being offered include ‘Melania to be revealed to be living with another man in Trump’s first term’ and ‘The UN to relocate their headquarters outside of the US during Trumps Presidency.

Online political betting is available in five states; New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana and Nevada (restricted sign-up and payment regulations). Oregon recently legalized online betting, but so far it has only permitted the state lottery to offer bets.

Article by Nils Edmondson

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