Tropical wave may strengthen, become next named Atlantic storm

storm-clouds-headerAccuWeather reports a new tropical wave has emerged off the African coast and could develop into an organized system by the end of the week and into the weekend.

If a new system does form, it will interrupt the recent quiet pattern that has ruled across the Atlantic. The last system to form was Hurricane Bertha back in the beginning of August.

Current satellite imagery shows a few areas of convective showers and thunderstorms near a weak center of low pressure.

Rapid development in the short term is unlikely. The best time for strengthening will likely occur towards the end of the week when it moves into more favorable conditions.

Dry air and moderate shear currently stand in the way and will hinder the system over at least the next 24 to 48 hours. However, much more favorable conditions will greet the wave later this week.

“If it can hold together as it reaches the Caribbean later this week or this weekend, atmospheric conditions are not as dry and strengthening will be possible,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck.

AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski agrees. “There is a chance this low pressure area could evolve into an organized tropical system by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles Saturday,” said Kottlowski.

Even if development into a named tropical system does not occur, unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms will disrupt travel and plans in the northeast Caribbean this weekend.

Only two systems have formed in the Atlantic so far this season. Arthur came to life onJuly 1 while Bertha formed on Aug. 1.

If this new wave were to form into a named system, it would acquire the name Cristobal.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor the wave through the week.

Another tropical wave is expected to emerge from africa into the Atlantic during the middle of the week. This wave will also endure the same dry air and wind shear that has limited development across the region much of the season.

While conditions will not be favorable for rapid development, slow organization could lead to potential development this weekend or early next week.

While the Atlantic has been relatively quiet, the Pacific endured a rather active period.

Iselle brought heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of Hawaii last week. Julio continues to churn north of Hawaii, although no direct interaction with Hawaii is expected. Another area of concern has formed, just south of Mexico and will be worth watching over the next few days.

By Jordan Root, Meteorologist for AccuWeather.com

 



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