State of the Race: The polls are tightening, but Clinton still the favorite

2016 hillary clinton donald trumpThe race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump had been tightening for days leading up to the non sequitur announcement about emails from FBI Director James Comey.

Looking at the fivethirtyeight.com polls-plus forecast, Clinton’s win probability had dropped from an October high of 85.3 percent on Oct. 17 to 79.2 percent on Friday.

That’s a 6.1 percent drop over 11 days, and it’s down another 6.1 percent as of this writing in the three days since.

Which puts Clinton at a still healthy 73.1 percent chance of winning the election.

Fivethirtyeight.com has the popular vote right now pegged at 48.9 percent for Clinton, 44.7 percent for Trump and 4.8 percent for Gary Johnson.

There’s still a bit of wiggle room in there, with Jill Stein and Evan McMullin splitting the other 1.6 percent nationally, and a small number of undecideds.

The forecast has Clinton getting a relatively narrow win in the Electoral College, putting Clinton at 305 electoral votes.

Looking across the spectrum, the Huffington Post forecast has Clinton at a 98.2 percent win probability, with the most likely scenario in the Electoral College having her at 340 electoral votes, with a 45.9 percent to 40.3 percent lead on Trump in the popular vote.

The New York Times Upshot has Clinton at an 89 percent win probability, and Clinton projected to win 322 electoral votes.

The high-water mark in October for Clinton was 93 percent for a five-day run between Oct. 21 and Oct. 25.

The Princeton Election Consortium has Clinton at a 97 percent win probability with 321 electoral votes, with a popular vote margin of victory of 3.5 percent.

The various renderings one week out from Election Day resemble closely the final results from the 2012 election. Barack Obama won re-election in 2012 with 332 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney by 3.9 percent in the popular vote.

Story by Chris Graham



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