Two states key to Barack Obama’s 2008 election victory might be in play in 2012.
The president might be in trouble in North Carolina, which will play host to the Democratic National Convention later this summer. A Public Policy Polling survey of Tar Heel State voters has Obama with a narrow one-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney, 47 percent to 46 percent.
Obama has a sizable lead in Virginia, at 50 percent to 42 percent for Romney, maintaining what has been a consistent six- to eight-point lead among voters in the Old Dominion in recent months.
Just as consistent has been how close the race in North Carolina has been. PPP has had Obama and Romney within three points of each other in 21 of its last 22 polls.
Inside the poll numbers:
– Bad news for McDonnell? Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell has been mentioned as a possible short-lister for Romney’s vice-presidential slot. The PPP poll has McDonnell adding only a single point to Romney in Virginia, narrowing the race to 50 percent-43 percent. It isn’t likely that McDonnell would be seen as adding much to the GOP ticket if he can’t even bring his home state with him.
– The Goode factor: Third-party candidates tend to track well behind their poll numbers on Election Day. That said, former Fifth District Congressman Virgil Goode, running for president on the Constitution Party ticket, is pulling 9 percent of the vote in Virginia in the most recent PPP poll. A three-way race with Goode gives Obama a 14-point bulge over Romney in the state. It’s more likely that Goode ends up in the 1 to 2 percent range by Election Day, but that could still spell trouble for Romney if his campaign is able to narrow the gap by then.
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