Poll: Hurt has six-point edge over Perriello
The Roanoke College poll gives Hurt a 46 percent-40 percent lead over Perriello. Independent Jeffrey Clark polls 1 percent of the vote, with 13 percent undecided.
The poll includes interviews conducted with 567 likely voters in the Fifth District between Oct. 5-14. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.
A look inside the numbers suggests little room for Perriello to make up the gap. Undecideds do lean to Perriello, but only by a 19 percent-16 percent margin. Eighty percent of the undecideds said they are very likely to vote, and trend toward being moderate or conservative in their outlook.
“These results suggest that it will be very difficult for Rep. Perriello to retain his seat,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, the director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College. “Perriello has to hope for a very large turnout among the core Democratic voters as well as the so-called ‘Obama voters.’ That said, the race is certainly not yet over.”
More information, methodology, the questionnaire and all frequencies are available at http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/2010_Roanoke_College_Poll.htm.