Inside the Numbers: The latest from Virginia COVID-19 case, hospitalization, mortality data

Virginia covid-19

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Virginia continues to have numbers well within the COVID-19 curve, both in terms of case numbers and hospital capacity.

Even as Gov. Ralph Northam highlighted what he termed a concerning increase in cases in the Hampton Roads area at a press conference on Tuesday, the seven-day moving average of cases statewide is still 31.8 percent down from the peak on May 31, which was two days after the governor moved the state into Phase Two of his economic reopening from the COVID-19 lockdowns.

The Hampton Roads region is, no question, seeing an uptick over the past week, with its seven-day moving average of new cases more than doubling over the period, to 346.9 as of today, according to numbers from the Virginia Department of Health.

The Hampton Roads region is currently accounting for 42.6 percent of all new cases statewide over the past seven days, according to the VDH numbers.

Northern Virginia, meanwhile, continues its downward trajectory from its May 31 peak. The seven-day moving average of new cases in NoVa is at 152.6 today, down 77.7 percent since May 31.

That peak in NoVa was reached two days after Northam moved that region from what was termed a Phase Zero to Phase Two, meaning the continued decline in cases has come since a peak and as the region moved from lockdown into a substantial reopening.

Hospital numbers

Even with the uptick in cases in Hampton Roads, hospital capacity statewide continues to be more than adequate to meet any possible surge.

Statewide, hospitals are operating at 77.1 percent capacity, which is in line with capacity numbers dating back to late April.

Even in Hampton Roads, with the increase in new cases in the past week, hospital capacity is actually slightly better than the state average, with hospitals in the region operating at 72.7 percent capacity.

The Hampton Roads region is seeing a higher ratio of COVID-19 patients – with 16.9 percent of those currently in hospitals either testing positive for the virus or currently awaiting testing results.

The Northwest region, which includes the Augusta County, Staunton, Waynesboro area, and the Central region are both at 6 percent in that metric.

Statewide, 8.9 percent of all patients are either testing positive for the virus or currently awaiting testing results.

Mortality data: Seniors, kids

The state is reporting 1,977 COVID-19-related deaths. For context, the VDH has reported 4,006 flu- and pneumonia-related deaths in the 2019-2020 flu season.

The previous five flu seasons, dating back to 2014-2015, had averaged 4,913.6 flu and pneumonia deaths, with a peak of 5,155 flu and pneumonia deaths in the 2016-2017 flu season.

The COVID numbers continue to show the greatest impact in terms of mortality being among seniors, with 59.5 percent of the state’s reported deaths – 1,177 of 1,977 – coming among residents of long-term care facilities, and 990 of the deaths – 50.1 percent – being among those 80 and older.

There has still not been a death reported among those aged 20 and younger, with 7,779 reported positive cases among that age cohort, and 124 hospitalizations, for a case hospitalization rate of 1.6 percent.

The case hospitalization rate for those 20 and older is 10.4 percent, and the case hospitalization rate for 60 and older is 25.1 percent.

Story by Chris Graham

         
 

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