Inside the Numbers: Local COVID-19 numbers still trailing well behind state, NoVa

Virginia covid-19

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Media reports that have been aimed for four months at getting you to believe that things with respect to COVID-19 are somehow dire in Augusta County, Staunton and Waynesboro continue to miss the mark by a substantial margin.

The regional rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents is 408.9, according to today’s updated figures from the Virginia Department of Health.

The state per 100K rate is 918.2, and the highest local rate statewide, in the City of Manassas, is 3,674.3.

The hospitalization rate for the local region is also trailing well behind state averages, at 19.7 per 100,000 residents, less than a fourth of the state rate of 84.4.

The first local COVID-19 death was reported by VDH over the weekend. The rate per 100k locally is .82, versus the state rate of 23.8.

Regional breakdowns

Northern Virginia

  • Rolling seven-day average of new reported cases: 174.9
  • Hospital beds used/capacity: 2,522/3,287 (76.7 percent)
  • Number hospitalized due to COVID-19: 241 (7.3 percent of overall capacity)
  • Number in ICU: 45

Hampton Roads

  • Rolling seven-day average of new reported cases: 456.1
  • Hospital beds used/capacity: 2,381/3,348 (71.1 percent)
  • Number hospitalized due to COVID-19: 422 (12.6 percent of overall capacity)
  • Number in ICU: 95

Central Virginia

  • Rolling seven-day average of new reported cases: 128.3
  • Hospital beds used/capacity: 3,405/4,063 (83.8 percent)
  • Number hospitalized due to COVID-19: 239 (5.9 percent of overall capacity)
  • Number in ICU: 55

Northwest Virginia

  • Rolling seven-day average of new reported cases: 101.3
  • Hospital beds used/capacity: 2,219/2,890
  • Number hospitalized due to COVID-19: 110 (3.8 percent of overall capacity)
  • Number in ICU: 26

Southwest Virginia

  • Rolling seven-day average of new reported cases: 101.3
  • Hospital beds used/capacity: 2,072/2,888 (71.7 percent)
  • Number hospitalized due to COVID-19: 146 (5.1 percent)
  • Number in ICU: 44

Mortality data

The Monday VDH update has the state at 2,031 COVID-19 deaths as of Monday morning.

Long-term care facilities have accounted for 1,192 COVID-19 deaths, 58.7 percent of the total.

The case-fatality rate for those 80 and older – 1,016 deaths among 3,889 confirmed cases – is 26.1 percent.

The CFR for those under 60 – 201 deaths among 63,479 cases – is .3 percent.

The all-age CFR – 2,031 deaths among 78,375 cases – is 2.59 percent.

What is referred to as IFR – infection fatality ratio – is still open to interpretation. It’s safe to assume that there is some significant number of people who have or have had COVID-19 who have not been nor ever were confirmed as COVID-19 cases.

The state modeling from the outset of the COVID-19 response has assumed seven unconfirmed cases for every confirmed case.

Using that number, the all-age IFR would stand at .37 percent.

The IFR for 80+ would be 3.73 percent.

The IFR for those under 60 would be .042 percent.

Flip that around to survival rate, and the all-age survival rate would be 99.63 percent, with 80+ at 96.27 percent, and under 60 at 99.958 percent.

Hospitalization demographics

An important discussion is ongoing with respect to in-person instruction in K-12 schools, and the dangers of exposure to COVID-19 among children.

Virginia still has not registered a COVID-19 death among the under-20 population, and the case hospitalization rate is 1.5 percent – with 133 cumulative hospitalizations over the past four months among the 8,583 COVID-19 cases in the under-20 set.

For comparison, the case hospitalization rate for those over 20 is 10.1 percent, nearly seven times the rate for those under 20, and among those 60 and older, the case hospitalization rate is 24.7 percent – more than 16 times the rate of those under 20.

Story by Chris Graham


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