Inside the Numbers: Increase in COVID-19 cases, but hospital capacity remains strong

Virginia covid-19

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Virginia hospitals are running at 76.7 percent of their pre-surge capacity, according to numbers from the Virginia Department of Health and Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association updated on Monday.

Four of the state’s five regions are in the 70s in terms of hospital capacity, and, interesting to point out, capacity is actually running best in Hampton Roads, which is at 71.3 percent capacity today, despite an increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases that began on June 24.

The seven-day moving average of new reported COVID-19 cases in Hampton Roads on that date was 76.4.

The average jumped the 400 mark on July 16, and is at 473.1 today.

Despite more than a month of rising COVID-19 counts in Hampton Roads, hospitals in the region have been running steady in terms of capacity.

The hospital census back on June 24, at the beginning of the recent uptick in COVID-19 cases in Hampton Roads, was 2,373, 70.9 percent of the available beds in the region, according to VDH.

The total beds in the region occupied today: 2,387.

And this is with an increase in COVID-19 patients in the region’s hospitals from 179 back on June 24 to 477 as of this morning.

Statewide/regional hospitalization, case numbers

Virginia

  • Beds used/capacity: 12,642/16,476 (76.7 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 1,200 (7.3 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 260
  • Seven-day rolling COVID-19 case average: 1,100

Hampton Roads

  • Beds used/capacity: 2,387/3,348 (71.3 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 477 (14.2 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 110
  • Seven-day rolling COVID-19 case average: 473.1

Central

  • Beds used/capacity: 3,367/4,063 (82.8 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 285 (7.0 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 48
  • Seven-day rolling COVID-19 case average: 164.7

NoVa

  • Beds used/capacity: 2,404/3,287 (73.1 percent of beds)
  • COVID-19 patients: 194
  • ICU: 35
  • Seven-day rolling COVID-19 case average: 211.1

Northwest

  • Beds used/capacity: 2,291/2,890 (75.9 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 95 (3.3 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 29
  • Seven-day rolling COVID-19 case average: 105.1

Southwest

  • Beds used/capacity: 2,193/2,888 (75.9 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 149 (5.2 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 38
  • Seven-day rolling COVID-19 case average: 139.3

Testing trends

VDH has been a bit busy of late with its COVID-19 testing. The past seven days for which full reporting is available – July 19-25 – has seen an average of 16,309 tests per day.

For comparison, the seven-day period rolling into July 1, when the state moved into Phase Three of its reopening from public health shutdowns ordered by Gov. Ralph Northam back in March, had an average of 11,565 tests per day.

And going back to June 5, when Northam moved the state into Phase Two of the reopening, the seven-day average was 10,123.

The percent positive ratio on June 5 was at 8.4 percent. The ratio today is 7.5 percent.

It’s worth noting the overall hospitalization trends vis-à-vis the testing and percent positives.

June 5

  • Beds used/capacity: 12,233/16,476 (74.2 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 1,205 (7.3 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 320

July 1

  • Beds used/capacity: 12,830/16,476 (77.9 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 892 (5.4 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 205

July 27

  • Beds used/capacity: 12,642/16,476 (76.7 percent)
  • COVID-19 patients: 1,200 (7.3 percent of beds)
  • ICU: 260

Demographic data: Mortality, hospitalizations

The COVID-19 death toll continues to be largely an issue in long-term care facilities and among those aged 80 and older.

As of today’s reporting, 1,203 of the 2,082 COVID-19 deaths in Virginia were among residents of long-term care facilities – 57.8 percent.

Those 80 and older have accounted for 1,035 of the 2,082 deaths – 49.7 percent.

Those 70 and older have accounted for 1,559 of the 2,082 deaths – 74.9 percent.

There have been 208 COVID-19 deaths among those 60 and under.

Also of note: VDH reported 51 COVID-19 deaths over the past week. Of those, 23 actually took place in the past week. The other 28 occurred in previous weeks.

80+

  • Case fatality rate: 1,035 deaths/4,108 cases (25.2 percent)
  • Infection fatality rate (7:1 infection/case ratio): 3.6 percent
  • Case hospitalization rate: 1,237 hospitalizations/4,108 cases (30.1 percent)

60 and under

  • Case fatality rate: 208 deaths/69,588 cases (.29 percent)
  • Infection fatality rate (7:1 infection/case ratio): .04 percent
  • Case hospitalization rate: 3,650 hospitalizations/69,588 cases (5.2 percent)

20 and under

  • Case fatality rate: 0 deaths/9,534 cases (0 percent)
  • Infection fatality rate (7:1 infection/case ratio): 0 percent
  • Case hospitalization rate: 142 hospitalizations/9,534 cases (1.5 percent)

Story by Chris Graham


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