Inside the Numbers: Early voting trends four weeks out from Nov. 3

2020 election

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More than one in 10 registered voters in Staunton, Charlottesville and Albemarle County had already cast their ballots four weeks ahead of the Nov. 3 election.

And the three traditionally Democratic areas are all tracking well ahead of their Republican-leaning neighbors in Augusta and Rockingham in both early voting and requests for mail-in ballots.

This from our analysis of early-voting and mail-in ballot request numbers from the Virginia Public Access Project and updated voter-registration numbers from the Virginia Department of Elections.

The VPAP numbers cited in this analysis are through early voting and mail-in ballot requests made to local registrars as of the end of the workday on Tuesday, Oct. 6.

The 2016 numbers are from the Virginia Department of Elections.

Staunton

As of Tuesday, 2,384 early votes had been cast, representing 14.3 percent of the city’s 16,705 registered voters.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballots was at 5,144, representing 30.8 percent of the city’s registered voter base.

In 2016, Staunton had a slight pull toward Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, giving her 47.4 percent of the vote, to Donald Trump’s 45.6 percent.

Albemarle County

Albemarle County had reported 9,288 early votes as of the end of the day on Tuesday, 11.8 percent of the county’s 78,392 registered voters.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballots was 28,355, representing 36.2 percent of the county’s registered voter base.

Albemarle was solid D in 2016, giving Clinton a 58.8 percent-to-34.0 percent win over Trump.

Charlottesville

Charlottesville was reporting 3,765 early votes as of Tuesday, 11.4 percent of the city’s 33,056 registered voters.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballots was 11,940, representing 36.1 percent of the city’s registered voter base.

As if you need to be told, Charlottesville is deep, deep blue – Clinton defeated Trump in 2016 by a 79.7 percent-to-13.2 percent margin.

Waynesboro

Waynesboro reported 1,247 early votes as of the close of business on Tuesday, 9.2 percent of the city’s 13,596 registered voters.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballots was 3,693, representing 27.2 percent of the city’s registered voter base.

Waynesboro was solid Trump in 2016, giving the Republican nominee a 52.2 percent-to-40.9 percent win over Clinton.

Augusta County

Augusta County reported 4,561 early votes cast as of Tuesday’s close of business, 9.2 percent of the county’s 49,654 registered voters.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballot was 9,274, representing 18.7 percent of the county’s registered voter base.

Augusta County gave Trump a 72.0 percent-to-22.5 percent victory over Clinton in 2016.

Harrisonburg

The lone Democratic-leaning area not on the early-voter train, Harrisonburg had reported 2,248 early votes cast of the end of the day on Tuesday, 8.7 percent of the city’s 25,915 registered voters.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballots was 6,061, 23.4 percent of the city’s registered voter base.

Harrisonburg gave Clinton a resounding win in 2016, with 56.9 percent of the city’s votes going to the Democrat, to 34.8 percent for Trump.

Rockingham County

Not a lot of activity here. Just 3,307 early votes from among the 51,348 registered voters in the county, a turnout at 6.4 percent so far.

The total of early votes and requests for mail-in ballots is also lagging behind, at 8,640, or 16.8 percent of the county’s registered voter base.

Rockingham gave Trump a 69.3 percent-to-25.0 percent win in 2016.

Story by Chris Graham


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