Inside the Numbers: Continued positive COVID-19 trends in VDH numbers

Virginia covid-19

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The number of people with COVID-19 in Virginia hospitals is at a two-month low, as other metrics related to the pandemic continue to show sustained improvement.

The Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association COVID-19 dashboard reports 1,026 people with COVID-19 currently in Virginia hospitals, representing 6.2 percent of the state’s overall hospital capacity.

Seventy-seven percent of the state’s hospital beds are currently in use overall. The VHHA dashboard reports that there are 3,792 open hospital beds today.

There is also ample availability of ventilators – with 21 percent of the 2,975 ventilators in Virginia hospitals, 614, currently in use.

Of that total, 143 are being used to treat COVID-19 patients.

Case trends

The seven-day moving average of new reported cases is 684, the lowest level since April 29, and the three-day average as of today is 491, the lowest level since April 16-18.

In the Augusta County-Staunton-Waynesboro region, there have been 30 new cases reported in the past week, pushing the total for the 13 weeks of the pandemic to 251.

There have been 13 cumulative hospitalizations in the local region and two deaths.

Demographics

The death toll from COVID-19 as of today’s VDH dashboard update is 1,534.

The 870 deaths in long-term care facilities account for 56.7 percent of the overall total.

There have been 790 deaths from COVID-19 among those 80+ – accounting for 51.5 percent of the total.

There have been 142 deaths, 2,525 total hospitalizations and 41,870 confirmed COVID-19 cases among those under 60.

The case fatality rate for the under-60 population is .34 percent.

An estimate for infection fatality rate for under-60, using the UVA Biocomplexity Institute estimate of seven infections for each confirmed COVID-19 case, would be .048 percent.

Put another way, that would imply a 99.952 percent survival rate for those under 60 who contract COVID-19.

The risk certainly goes up for those over 60.

The infection fatality rate in Virginia for those ages 60-69 works out to .57 percent, for a survival rate of 99.43 percent.

The IFR in the 70-79 population based on the VDH numbers is 1.9 percent, for a survival rate of 98.1 percent.

For 80+, the IFR is 3.8 percent, for a survival rate of 96.2 percent.

Story by Chris Graham


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