How much to bet on a football game: The pie model

When you start betting on football matches, you will probably come to the point where you want to place your bets in a strategic way (to help maximize profits). In the beginning, you may place bets based upon your gut feeling but you could lose money too fast and it could cost you in the long run. Instead, betting with a strategy – a proven strategy – would be a better way to go. So, we’d like to share our “pie model” strategy with you.

The scenario

You have selected one of the best bookmakers. You have opened an account and deposited 200 euros into that account. Since then, you have placed 2 winning bets of 50 euros each that have increased your account balance to 340 euros. Feeling good about your success, you decide to place 3 more bets and you increase the amount you bet with. You place 100 euros on each bet, but then you lose all three of them. Now there’s only 40 euros left in your account balance. Trying to recover your losses, you place a high odds bet and lose this one too – which was almost inevitable. You’ve lost it all so your balance is now zero. This could have gone differently.

What is the Pie Model?

The “pie model” is a simplified explanation about how to place your bets in a systematic way. In the pie model, the whole “pie” represents your entire bankroll, which you will cut up in to 10 equal slices (10 bets). In our example where we started an account with 200 euros, that means that each slice of the pie represents an amount of 20 euros (200 euros / 10 slices = 20 euros/slice). For every bet you place, you can bet up to 20 euros maximum per bet (up to one slice of pie per bet).

You can also divide each bet (each slice of pie) into 10 smaller pieces. In our example of each slice being worth 20 euros, the breakdown would look like this:

1/10 pie slice = 2 euros

2/10 pie slice = 4 euros

3/10 pie slice = 6 euros

4/10 pie slice = 8 euros

5/10 pie slice = 10 euros

6/10 pie slice = 12 euros

7/10 pie slice = 14 euros

8/10 pie slice = 16 euros

9/10 pie slice = 18 euros

10/10 pie slice = 20 euros

Using this breakdown, the following are some of our recommendations about how much value you should assign to different kinds of bets:

1/10 (2 euros):

This is only for complex (combination) bets or bets that you place just for fun.

2/10 up to 4/10 (4 euros up to 8 euros):

Bets with a small chance of winning.

5/10 up to 7/10 (10 euros up to 14 euros):

Bets with a likely chance of winning.

8/10 up to 10/10 (16 euros up to 20 euros):

Bets with a high chance of winning.

Using this system for an example, there’s a football match between Ajax – Sparta offering odds of 1.80. So, you could bet 7/10 of a slice of pie = a bet of 14 euros. It doesn’t matter whether your bankroll is 10x bigger (for a bet of 140 euros) or 10x smaller (for a bet of 1.40 euros); the percentage of your bankroll stays the same.

The advantages of this system:

  • Maximize the number of bets from your bankroll

  • Good for people looking for a long term strategy and profits

  • You never bet your entire bankroll on one bet

  • You bet your money using a consistent strategy

  • Bankroll size does not matter, the principles are the same

  • No need to discuss exact amounts when chatting about your bankroll on the forum

  • Keep things fun by making different kinds of bets

The disadvantages of this system:

  • Not suitable for “gamblers”

  • “Big” profits are not possible in the short term

  • You can’t bet your entire bankroll

Conclusion about the Pie Model

The pie model gives bettors a firm grasp on how to bet with structure. You can’t “lose” your entire bankroll in just one bet so betting stays fun. Plus, this system can be used to help keep your playing habits under control and it will help make your bankroll last longer. We hope we’ve given you some valuable insight about how the pie model can be used to place your bets in a strategic way.

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