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Grading the bracket: Putting the metrics up against how the committee seeded teams from the ACC

acc basketballHow did Selection Sunday go for the ACC?

Well, we got seven bids. None higher than a four.

Our tournament champ, on an eight-game winning streak, is a nine.

Louisville and Duke, with good metrics, are outside looking in.

Screwjob is a good descriptor.

 

Where We Are

Updated Sunday evening


uva athleticsVirginia (18-6, 14-4 ACC)

  • NET: 12
  • KenPom: 10
  • BPI: 11
  • Sagarin: 8
  • KPI: 19
  • Avg. Rating: 10

Outlook: An average rating of 10 screams three seed. The profile holds up with a 5-4 record in Quad 1 and 4-1 record in Quad 2. The consensus seems to be four seed. Don’t be surprised if what I tell you comes true, though.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 16

Analysis: Lower than Florida State?


fsuFlorida State (16-6, 12-5 ACC)

  • NET: 24
  • KenPom: 15
  • BPI: 21
  • Sagarin: 12
  • KPI: 20
  • Avg. Rating: 18.4

Outlook: This resume screams five seed. Another one where the consensus seems to have them a four. Again, don’t be surprised after reading this if they’re down a seed line.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 13

Analysis: Lost three of its last five, two of those chances to wrap the ACC regular season and tournament titles. Yeah, sure, our best team.


north carolinaNorth Carolina (18-10, 12-7 ACC)

  • NET: 32
  • KenPom: 27
  • BPI: 25
  • Sagarin: 20
  • KPI: 35
  • Avg. Rating: 27.8

Outlook: Seemed headed toward an 8/9 game next week. May have played their way up to a seven, which helps them avoid a one in the second round.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 31

Analysis: Eight seed seems about right.


Georgia TechGeorgia Tech (17-8, 13-6 ACC)

  • NET: 33
  • KenPom: 32
  • BPI: 35
  • Sagarin: 33
  • KPI: 30
  • Avg. Rating: 32.6

Outlook: One of the hottest teams around with eight straight wins and an ACC Tournament trophy. Still probably an 8/9 game in their future. I wouldn’t want to be the one seed on the weekend in their bracket.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 34

Analysis: You don’t want to face these guys right now. Because now they’re pissed.


ClemsonClemson (16-7, 10-7 ACC)

  • NET: 41
  • KenPom: 42
  • BPI: 38
  • Sagarin: 36
  • KPI: 16
  • Avg. Rating: 34.6

Outlook: Destined for an 8/9 game. Didn’t do themselves any favors in blowing the Miami game.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 27

Analysis: I don’t get the love. A seven? Seriously? That neutral-site win over ‘Bama in December is carrying a lot.


SyracuseSyracuse (16-9, 10-8 ACC)

  • NET: 40
  • KenPom: 41
  • BPI: 33
  • Sagarin: 34
  • KPI: 45
  • Avg. Rating: 38.8

Outlook: In. A nine or 10, but in. Next.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 41

Analysis: An 11. OK. Doesn’t matter with Boeheim. He gets to work his magic.


virginia tech logoVirginia Tech (15-6, 9-5 ACC)

  • NET: 48
  • KenPom: 50
  • BPI: 39
  • Sagarin: 46
  • KPI: 50
  • Avg. Rating: 46.6

Outlook: I’m seeing the Hokies as high as a seven in the bracketologies. Seriously? A 46.6 average rating screams bubble. And that’s not accounting for them having only played three games in the past five weeks. I dunno, man.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: 37

Analysis: A seven is an awful lot of love for a team that has lost two of its three games since Feb. 6.


LouisvilleLouisville (13-7, 8-6 ACC)

  • NET: 56
  • KenPom: 54
  • BPI: 60
  • Sagarin: 40
  • KPI: 37
  • Avg. Rating: 49.4

Outlook: I’m seeing unusual love for the Cardinals. The metrics don’t suggest it. The resume enhancers – 1-6 in Quad 1s, 6-0 in Quad 2s – meh. If they get in …

Selection Committee Overall Seed: First Four Out

Analysis: Hard to argue that they had their chances to play their way in.


dukeDuke (13-11, 11-9 ACC)

  • NET: 49
  • KenPom: 33
  • BPI: 31
  • Sagarin: 29
  • KPI: 71
  • Avg. Rating: 42.6

Outlook: There’s a reason somebody leaked to Reece Davis. If the Hokies and Cardinals are locks, you can’t keep Duke out.

Selection Committee Overall Seed: N/A

Analysis: Whoever felt compelled to leak to ESPN that Duke would accept a bid looks like an idiot now.



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